indian stock trading tips

SEPTEMBER, 2010 - MARKET TREND

2010-08-29T10:50:00.000-07:00

The market at one stage during August appeared to have broken out but then failed to cross the 18500+ mark on SENSEX. In fact it sowed some weakness during last week of the month falling below 18000. It appears that during the first half of September market may continue to show weakness at higher levels in the form of profit booking every time the market jumps. It may fall to 17200 or even below 17K upto 16800. However, it is unlikely to witness sharp falls. Every dip in the market is still an opportunity for fresh buying of good scrips. The following scrips look good for making fresh buying.

RIL, INFOSYS, TATA STEEL, SBI, GUJ AMBUJA CEMENT, RPOWER, GVK POWER, GMR INFRA, NEYVELLI LIGNITE, RANBAXY, GLENMARK, HCL TECH, GEOMETRIC, JINDAL ENERGY, GSPL, GACL, INDIA CEMENT, KINGFISHER AIRLINES, NTPC, NHPC, ESCORTS, ASHOK LEYLAND, APOLLO TYRE, CEAT.

BUY BURNPUR CEMENT around 11.25 with 6 month target of 18.50

MARKET TREND FOR JULY 2010

2010-06-27T01:19:00.000-07:00

Market has shown great strength at lower levels during the month of June and it is likely to cross 18000 mark on SENSEX during this month. Every fall in the market should be used as an opportunity to buy good stocks. My target for July is 18500+ on SENSEX. My picks are IGL, RELIANCE INDUSTRIES, RNRL, RELIANCE POWER, INFOSYS, CIPLA, DR REDDY'S LAB, DISHMAN PHARMA, INDIA CEMENTS, ASHOK LEYLAND, NEYVELLI LIGNITE, NTPC, ORCHID CHEMICALS, ASHOK LEYLAND, SONATA SOFTWARE, GEOMETRIC SOFT, KARNATAKA BANK, TATA STEEL, MAHENDRA SATYAM, NHPC, HCL TECHNO, SUZLON, GVK POWER.

MARKET TREND : JUNE , 2010

2010-06-06T11:11:00.000-07:00

MARKET IS ALL LIKELY TO FALL SHARPLY DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS. DO NOT SELL IN PANIC BUT WAIT AND USE THE FALL AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO BUY GOOD SCRIPS LIKE: RELIANCE, RPOWER, IGL, SONATA SOFTWARE, INFOSYS, GEOMETRIC, GUJ AMBUJA CEMENT, INDIA CEMENT, MAHENDRA SATYAM, NHPC, ASHOK LEYLAND, NTPC, TATA STEEL AND RNRL

MARKET TREND

2010-04-25T06:57:00.001-07:00

Market may open gap up on Monday, April 26.
SENSEX may cross 18000 during end of April/beginning of May.
The bullish trend is intact and it is wise to remain bullish for next month.
Metal sector for a short period may show weakness.
Reliance looks good with short term target of 1375 and long term target of 1750.
Pharma sector is attractive. Keep an eye on good pharma shares.
Cement stocks like Gujarat Ambuja and India CEment are good picks at this level.
Some stocks to watch are: CHEMPLAST SANMAR, ASHOK LEYLAND, NTPC, NHPC, BURNPUR CEMENT.

BUY RELIANCE POWER FOR LONG TERM INVESTMENT.

MARKET TREND : APRIL 12 TO APRIL 16, 2010

2010-04-10T04:20:00.000-07:00

The SENSEX managed to cross 18000 after a long time. However, it failed to sustain above that level during the week. The undercurrent is strong in favour of bulls and it appears that the market is going to make a new high in days to come. Much will depend on results that will be declared in April and May.

This week is crucial as INFY is declaring its figures on Tuesday. It may change the sentiment for some time on either way. I feel that Infosys results will not be below market expectation but weak dollar may induce weakness in IT stocks. If market falls post INFY results, treat it as an opportunity to make fresh buying because the downward move of the market may not last longer. There is one negative trigger from the side of RIL and it may bring market down to some extent on Monday if the market strongly reacts to the news and RIL falls sharply.

In all my strategy would be to wait and watch before INFY results are out. If market reacts sharply then I would preferably buy good stocks like INDIA CEMENTS, RPOWER, ASHOK LEYLAND, NTPC, GMR INFRA, GVK POWER, KALE CONSULTANT, M & M, RIL, RNRL, DR RADDY, CIPLA, DABUR, NEYVELLI LIGNITE, DISH TV.

NHPC appears to have made a strong base around 30-31 and is my peak of the week with immediate target of 36 and 3-month target of 45.

THIS WEEK-TIPS (March 29 to April 2)

2010-03-28T10:50:00.000-07:00

SENSEX may remain range bound with negative bias. But any reaction should be treated as an opportunity for fresh buying.

BUY GVK POWER, RELIANCE POWER, AJANTA PHARMA, MAHENDRA SATYAM (SATYAM COMPUTERS), GUJARAT AMBUJA CEMENT, GSPL, INDIA CEMENTS, HCL TECH, INFOSYS, RIL WITH LONG TERM VIEW.

MARKET TREND :MARCH 22 TO MARCH 26, 2010

2010-03-20T20:39:00.000-07:00

The market gained marginally during previous week. It appears that the market may open with negative bias on Monday. The week will be highly volatile as we have F & O settlement for March on Thursday and Wednesday is holiday due to Ramnavmi. However the way market is behaving it would be wise to remain bullish and treat each reaction in the market as an opportunity to enter good scrips. Market has strong support near 16800 and 16200 and in near future it is not likely to fall below 16200 on SENSEX. After a couple of weeks we shall have results season and I think that will drive market upwards and may be near 18500 by the end of April. In short, in present situation it would be better to remain bullish than to turn a bear.

CENTURY TEXTILES looks good. Its long term target is 644. Add it in your portfolio and wait for about 2-3 months. RELIACE(RIL) is another good stock at present. Its target is 1260 in near future. HCL TECHNO has a target of 393 and then 411. Keep an eye on these stocks. Other stocks to watch are ASHOK LEYLAND, M & M, RPL, NHPC, INDIA CEMENTS.

MARKET TREND :MARCH 15 TO MARCH 19, 2010

2010-03-12T10:27:00.000-08:00

The market experiences resistance near 17200 level on SENSEX. It appears that the market is actually in consolidation phase and may remain sideways during remaining part of March. But, it may accelerate its speed at the expiry of March F & O and then during next month the results may help accelerate it further. The market has bias more on bull's side and it is wise to remain bullish for next 2-3 months time and buy good scrips as and when the market shows some reaction. Indian companies may surprise on positive side during next result season and that may take market to 20000+ level. However, I advise all to play as an investor and not as a speculator in this market.

MAHENDRA SATYAM (Satyam Computer) is my choice for the week. It has a target of 140 in near future. SUZLON is another choice and its short term target is 90.

MARKET TREND : MARCH 01 TO MARCH 05, 2010

2010-03-01T00:33:00.000-08:00

The budget is finally out. now we will have expert opinions regarding its effects on the market. Irrespective of what experts say or what political analysts predict, I think that the budget does have some good aspects to trigger upward mood in the market but the market will take major clues from what happens to Global markets in days to come. However, I am confident that the market will not fall sharply and that it will find good support near 15200 if at all it falls. On the other hand market has all potential to cross 18000 in a couple of weeks and we may see that in the month of March the SENSEX and NIFTY gain substantially.

Sector-wise, cement and power sector shares may witness a rally along with fertiliser companies. IT leaders INFOSYS, WIPRO, TCS will have strong moves in upward direction. I recommend to buy good cement stocks like ACC, Gujarat Ambuja, India Cements and Binani Cements as a long term buy. Other stocks to watch are NHPC, GMR INFRA, TATA MOTORS, RANBAXY and DABUR.

MARKET TREND : FEBRUARY 22 TO FEBRUARY 26, 2010

2010-02-20T23:55:00.000-08:00

SINCE BUDGET WILL BE PRESENTED ON FRIDAY, 26TH, AND F & O SETTLEMENT IS ON THURSDAY, IT WOULD BE WISE TO REMAIN PASSIVE DURING THIS WEEK THOUGH THE BIAS IS ON THE SIDE OF BULLISHNESS. WAIT AND WATCH. LET THE MARKET SETTLE AFTER BUDGET AND THEN DECIDE WHAT TO DO IN NEXT WEEK.

MARKET TREND : FEBRUARY 15 TO FEBRUARY 19, 2010

2010-02-13T10:03:00.000-08:00

Market did get support near 15800 during previous week as mentioned. It appears now that the market would enter a consolidation phase and will become range-bound between 15800 and 17200 until budget. A lot would depend on budget as usual but taking all other factors into consideration, it would be wise to remain bullish despite continuous selling by FIIs.

I am bullish on INDIA CEMENT (target 144), GNFC (144), GMR INFRA (63), IGL (267), HCL TECHNO (388), INFOSYS (2745), RELIANCE (1188), ASHOK LEYLAND (75), GEOMETRIC SOFT (84), ORCHID CHEMICALS (207), GUJARAT ALKALI (180), RPOWER (207), ADANI POWER (135), GUJ AMBUJA (142). Keep a vigilant eye on these stocks and grab the opportunity to buy them during downward reaction.

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THIS WEEK : FEB 08 TO FEB 12, 2010

2010-02-07T09:23:00.000-08:00

I regret my absence last week due to personal reasons. The market lost heavily during previous two weeks and has reached a level close to 15800(Friday closing). This is where market has got very good support. It is likely that the market may not fall sharply from here and in fact, every time it falls below 15750 it may find some support by bottom fishing. However, if market fails to close above 15750 for two consecutive sessions then it may fall again sharply and may witness sub-15000 and even sub-14000 levels. I believe that the market may not fall further from where it closed on Friday.

Better strategy would be to pick good stocks in falling market because the performance of Indian companies has reflected clearly that the recession did not have much effect on Indian companies and we may continue to consolidate our economy in comparison to rest of the world.

The market support levels are 15750 and 15150. Resistance levels are 16200 and 16800 for next couple of weeks.

KEEP AN EYE ON
INDIA CEMENT
. IT APPEARS STRONG NEAR 113 MARK AND ITS IMMEDIATE TARGET IS 127 AND NEXT TARGET IS 144.

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MARKET TREND : JANUARY 25 TO JANUARY 29, 2010

2010-01-24T10:24:00.000-08:00

The market witnessed a very disappointing week after a long time. Almost all round selling pressure was observed in all sectors due mainly to Global disappointments. The SENSEX has good support near 16800 where it has closed. Global markets were weak on Friday indicating that our market will open gap down on Monday.

I believe that the downward movement of market may not continue further and the market may rebound at any point. I would prefer to add some good scrips in my portfolio during this fall. Treat this reactive phase as an opportunity to buy.

Concentrate on GNFC (Current price 123, target 144), Geometric (71, 84), IGL (202, 236).

DO NOT RUSH TO SELL IN PANIC.

MARKET TREND : JANUARY 11 TO JANUARY 15, 2010

2010-01-09T08:54:00.000-08:00

The market went up for 2 days and then lost some points due to profit booking during later part of the week. However it has closed above 17500 and it is a good sign. It appears that the market will try to consolidate around this level and then move up again. The trend is bullish and it is expected to remain bullish for next couple of weeks.

The market may open weak on Monday. If so, then it would be a better opportunity to buy because the market is most unlikely to break 16800 in near future. Unless there is some clear indication of market weakening for long time each fall in the market should be utilized as an opportunity to buy. However, as advised earlier, I would reiterate that beyond 18000 one should start booking partial profits.

Power sector appears strong and in next 2-3 weeks they are likely to go strong and make sizeable gains. Keep an eye on all good power stocks. Weakness in dollar may cause IT stocks to fall but one should use it as an opportunity to make fresh buying in IT because these stocks are unlikely to fall sharply and below certain levels.

MY PICK OF THE WEEK IS RELIANCE POWER NEAR 160 MARK. It may shoot up at any juncture to reach 180+ mark quickly. Another power stock with good potential is GVK.

MARKET TREND : JANUARY 4 TO JANUARY 8, 2010

2010-01-02T23:04:00.000-08:00

HAPPY NEW YEAR 2010

2009 ended with great gains and with great feelings of 2010 being another great year for the stock markets world over. Market is in upbeat mood and is likely to start the new year with reasonable gains on Monday. There is enough liquidity in the market and that played the key role in pushing the market upwards. Most of the indicators are positive at present and it appears that the market may reach the level around 18500 without much difficulty and then may become range-bound till the next budget. The most important trigger for the market now would be budget. It may drive it in any direction.

The best strategy is to start slow unwinding after the index crosses 18000 and to make partial exit from long positions. However, GOING SHORT COULD PROVE A SUICIDAL STEP for speculators. As an investor I would prefer to stay long only partially and book some profit at higher levels. People have now started to talk about SENSEX crossing 25000 mark during current year. If it happens well and good but nobody should become unnecessarily aggressive.

My peak of the week is NEYVELLI LIGNITE. It has potential now to cross 170 in the beginning and then 198 is its next target. Market has good support near 16800 and great resistance near 18100.

SENSEX MAY CROSS 18400

2009-12-27T22:48:00.001-08:00

I could not write my post for previous week as my son was leaving for USA for further studies on 25th. I had little access to the market and preferred to stay away from blogger. Now that he has reached his destination I will now be able to concentrate on the market.

The market has successfully broken its strong resistance level and is likely to gain further during this week. The next level of resistance is 17850 and then 18150. It is expected to open positively on Tuesday. It appears that it will not find it much difficult to cross 18000 mark. However, the present scenario may not allow it to cross 18500. It is therefore advisable to hold your present long position and start booking profits after market has crossed 18000 mark. The attraction will be seen in IT, cement, power and pharma sectors.

My peak for the week is GNFC. Its first target is 108 and then 126. If it crosses 126 successfully then 144 is its 6 month target. Some previously recommended stocks like IGL, HCLTECH, SONATA, KALE CONSULTANT are going strong. It is better to hold them for a couple of weeks to reap good profits.

We have F & O settlement this week. Please remain cautious in trading futures, particularly those who are short. It is not wise to continue further with short position.

MARKET TREND : DECEMBER 14 TO DECEMBER 18, 2009

2009-12-12T10:37:00.000-08:00

The market, as mentioned earlier, is trying to find the direction and oscillates around 17000 on Sensex. There is no clear indication as to where it will from here. It would be wise to wait for the market to close above 17500 before going long. Simultaneously, it would be highly dangerous(suicidal) to go short heavily. The undercurrent seems bullish but market fails to cross the strong resistance level above 17000.

As an investor one should concentrate on scrips irrespective of the SENSEX or NIFTY. Certain stocks are strong and are likely to strengthen further. Pick such stocks for safe investment. I like

SONATA SOFTWARE
INDRAPRASTH GAS
DR REDDY'S LAB
RANBAXY
INFOSYS
GNFC
KINGFISHER AIR
GEOMETRIC SOFTWARE
AMBUJA CEMENT
GUJARAT ALKALI
DISH TV
NEYVELI LIGNITE
DABUR
HCL TECH
KALE CONSULTANTS

MARKET TREND : DECEMBER 07 TO DECEMBER 11, 2009

2009-12-06T00:19:00.000-08:00

The previous week was better than last couple of weeks since the market exhibited good gains during it and remained above 17000. It appears that the market has now reached a zone where it is difficult to say firmly what direction it might go from here. However, I believe that market has potential to sustain above 17000 and it is not likely to crash from here. It may show intraday reactions from high levels but its positive trend will continue.

DABUR has consolidated and as mentioned previously it will head towards the target of 180+. Another important pick, IGL(Indraprastha Gas) has crossed its resistance level of 165 after a long time and is likely to shoot up to cross 200 mark soon. Hold both these stocks. ORCHID CHEMICALS is another stock mentioned at the level of about 108 as BUY. It has crossed 200 mark and is heading slowly towards its target of 225. HCL TECH has consolidated around 330 and now it may shoot up any time to reach a level of about 380 within very short time. GUJ SIDDHI CEMENT appears to have consolidated around 16 and it has potential to reach 27 in days to come.

The market has support near 16800 and resistance near 17500 as mentioned previously. Once it manages to cross 17500 it will fast reach 18000+ mark where one can think of booking profits partially.

MARKET TREND : NOVEMBER 30 TO DECEMBER 04, 2009

2009-11-28T09:53:00.000-08:00

The previous week started strongly but then DUBAI CRISIS intervened and arrested the up-move. The fall in the market was not expected though intra-day corrections and profit-booking at higher levels were not ruled out. It is still not clear what could be the magnitude of Dubai-crisis and how far it could affect Indian economy. So market is most likely to open with negative bias on Monday. However, 16200 and 15800 are strong support levels for SENSEX and the market is unlikely to close below 15800, though it may fall below these levels intra-day. The strategy for the week should be that every fall in the market should be seen as an opportunity to go long as fundamentally the market still appears strong. Once the market stabilizes around 16000 it will start going up again with much stronger mood.

Support levels as mentioned earlier are 16200 and 15800 whereas 16750 and 17250 are immediate resistance levels. However, if market closes below 15800 then it may weaken further and go as low as 13800. Unless market closes above 17250 for two consecutive days it would find it difficult to reach new recent high. If market succeeds in crossing 17250 easily then it will shoot up like anything and will see levels close to 18500.

It appears that cement shares are gaining strength and are likely to give attractive returns from these levels. Keep an eye on ACC, Ambuja Cement, India Cement, etc.

STOCK MARKET TREND : NOVEMBER 23 TO NOVEMBER 27, 2009

2009-11-20T22:37:00.000-08:00

The market closed with strong note on Friday above 17000 on sensex. The US markets were marginally weak. DOW closed almost flat.

The trend is bullish and is likely to continue for next week and markets may see a level above 17600. There will be F & O settlement this Thursday so volatility will be comparatively high during the week. It would be wise to trade long than to go short because once market crosses 17250 it is likely to force shorts to cover aggressively. I believe that the market has potential to reach level of 18500 till the end of 2009. however, one should be cautious at these levels because at present the major driving force is liquidity and the major operators in the market are likely to start draining funds at higher levels. I would prefer to off-load at levels above 18000-partly if not fully. Keep on booking profits once sensex crosses 17800 marks but avoid going short.

Ashok Leyland has reached the target of 54 and is consolidating there. It may reach 63 once momentum peaks up.

I have been constantly recommending IGL(Indraprastha Gas) for last several months. I am confident that once it crosses 165+ mark it will fast reach the 210+ mark. It has very good long term potential.

Market has potential for going as high as 23000 but one should not get wrong idea of that happening in very short time. Market may make a recent new high but it will give sharp reactions before making new all-time highs.

I am back...

2009-11-19T00:02:00.000-08:00

For last four weeks I could not post because I was engaged in some other important assignment and had little time to access both the market and the internet. Now I am back and will start posting from this week onwards. I regret my absence and the inconvenience created out of that.

MARKET TREND : OCTOBER 19 TO OCTOBER 23, 2009

2009-10-18T01:54:00.000-07:00

WISH YOU ALL STERLING DEEPAWALI AND HAPPY NEW YEAR WITH PLEASANT SURPRISES

The year ended yesterday with positive bias and huge gains on yearly basis though the early gains on Muhurt Trading did not last and the market closed almost flat. Let us hope the year ahead brings more pleasant surprises for the investors. Market has crossed 17200 mark quite comfortably and has sustained above it indicating that its bullish character is still strong and it may continue to strengthen further in near future. It would be wiser to buy at every dip than to sell at every rise because the market has strong support levels near 16800 and 16200. I believe that even in the worst scenario the market is unlikely to test levels below 13800 whereas its upside at present cannot be predicted with accuracy. It definitely has strong resistance near 18500 but this cannot be used as an indicator to limit its upside. If 18500 is crossed successfully and comfortably then market may make a NEW HIGH before the next Muhurt Trading.

The most important sectors which can lead the next rally appear to be POWER, PHARMA and FMCG. Mid-cap stocks may perform far better than the overall market. Some stocks of my choice are:[figure in bracket shows long-term expected target]

CENTURY TEXT [596]
RANBAXY [444]
ORCHID CHEM [225]
RPOWER [234]
HUL [335]
IGL [211]
ITC [288]
DABUR [180]
ASHOK LEY [54]
ADANI POWER [144]
NTPC [252]

For present week the market has support near 16800 and 16500. It will find resistance near 17600 and 18000.

MARKET TREND : OCTOBER 12 TO OCTOBER 16, 2009

2009-10-11T01:39:00.000-07:00

The market lost some ground during previous week. It is in a highly risky zone where it is difficult to decide which way it could go in near future. However, the long term trend of bullishness appears to be intact, the market may fall somewhat further from here or may face resistance till the end of October in crossing 17000 and sustaining above it.

Since the US markets closed with a positive bias on Friday we can expect our market to open positive but whether it will close with gains or not remains to be seen. Much depends on quarterly results of some companies. Though liquidity appears to have improved a lot there is no guarantee that money will remain in the market for longer period or fresh money will enter the market.

The strategy for current week should be of keeping away from the market until it crosses 17200 or falls below 16000. If it crosses 17200 then we can hope that it would go up to 18500 gradually. If it closes below 16000 then one can expect it to touch sub-14000 level. However, the market at present does not appear to have weakened to the extent that it can fall very sharply. It may rise sharply if it enters the 17000+ range again.

I reiterate that POWER sector is my preferred sector and it is going to give surprises in near future. In addition to RPOWER one can concentrate on buying Adani Power in small lots and accumulate it because it does not appear to go much down from here. It has strong support near 96.

MARKET TREND : OCTOBER 05 TO OCTOBER 09, 2009

2009-10-03T20:28:00.000-07:00

The market appears to have some resistance at higher levels. After crossing 17000, as mentioned earlier, it has found resistance near 17200. The Global markets have closed on weak note on Friday(our market was closed on that day). Both Thursday and Friday were not encouraging for US markets.

It appears that our market may follow the global trend and may open with slightly nervous mood on Monday. If there is any negative move by other Asian markets then the market may open gap down.

The strategy should be that one should not sell in panic if market opens gap down but to remain patient till market stabilizes around some level. The market has strong support near 16750 from where it might jump back if at all it falls. The next support level is 16500. It has resistance level near 17600 and then near 17900. I believe that market may not gain or lose much at the end of the week. It may gain or lose by about 3 % on weekly basis.

If market falls sharply, keep an eye on good POWER and PHARMA stocks and add them to your portfolio.

MARKET TREND : SEPTEMBER 28 TO OCTOBER 02, 2009

2009-09-27T01:43:00.000-07:00

As mentioned in my previous post the market experienced strong resistance near 16800 mark during the week that ended on Friday. It did smell 17000 but the fun did not last longer due to profit-booking.The market closed on Friday with some weekly loss at 16500+ level. It appears that the investors and traders are not willing to buy at higher levels though most of them believe that the market is still in bullish mood. Now 16800+ or more precisely 17000 has become a psychological barrier and unless market closes above that the trend will remain slightly disappointing.

We have a truncated week this time and market is likely to remain range-bound with some negative bias. Appreciating rupee may affect IT stocks negatively. IT as a sector, therefore, has lost some lustre. Pharma is picking up and it would be better to enter good stocks like RANBAXY, CIPLA ans DR REDDY. I strongly believe that POWER sector will take lead in future to maintain the bullish trend of the market.

Market has strong resistance near 16800 and then at 17200. Its support levels are 16200 and 15800. It appears that whichever way the market goes the rise or fall would not be sharp. KINGFISHER AIR has shown some strong gains during previous week. I recommend it as BUY around 55 with Stoploss of 47.50. Its first target is 66 and then 81.

MARKET TREND : SEPTEMBER 21 TO SEPTEMBER 25, 2009

2009-09-19T20:24:00.000-07:00

The market slowly but strongly maintained its positive trend and has closed very close to the resistance level of 16750 during the previous week. It appears that there is some factor of fear still operating in the market which does not allow it to go up very rapidly or maintain its initial gains during a session. The improved liquidity in the market, positive advance-tax figures and encouraging global markets, all have contributed to recent gains but the gains are not as expected by traders and investors as we see selling pressure at higher levels.

The present week is going to be crucial and volatile due to F & O settlement. The CHINA FACTOR will have some negative effect on the market. By China- Factor I am referring to the mounting pressure on Indo-China border. This factor can suppress the recent upmove, though temporarily. If market takes this factor seriously then the fall will be sharp. One must be vigilant at higher levels because in any such circumstances the losses incurred could be very high. The long-term prospects of the market otherwise are very bright.

Our previous recommendations HT MEDIA, ORCHID CHEMICALS,DABUR and HCL TECH have registered gains as expected. One can hold ORCHID even at this level and wait for 200+ mark sooner or later. My PICK of the week will be RPOWER(Current 173, Target 207 Stoploss 160).

Market has support near 16200 and resistance near 17150.

MARKET TREND : SEPTEMBER 14 TO SEPTEMBER 18, 2009

2009-09-13T01:31:00.000-07:00

The previous week was good for the market as far as SENSEX and NIFTY are concerned. After a long time market closed above 16000 on sensex and kept the hope of market continuing its upward move. The market has closed at a crucial level of around 16200 which uptil now had been a strong resistance level. It remains to be seen during present week whether market succeeds or not in maintaining its gains and closing well above 16200 at the end. Though the bullish trend appears to have strong say there is some degree of uncertainty in the minds of a class of investors and traders who prefer to start selling and booking profit once the market crosses 16200 level.

It is difficult to predict the market behaviour at this level and investors and traders must remain a bit cautious in going long in haste. If the market remains positive on the opening day, it will be a strong indicator of bullish move. If it fails to close in the green with sizeable gains, it may be assumed that market gets tired around 16200.

The market has support near 15800 and 15500. It will face resistance near 16750. If market closes above 16500 then the bullish trend will become strong and, as mentioned earlier, may go to as high a level as 18500 till January, 2010. I am both bullish and cautious. Any fall in the market may be treated as an opportunity to go long.

My picks of the week are :(i)CENTURY TEXTILES current price 484- target 536 - stoploss 448 and (ii)GEOMETRICSOFT current price 48- target 60 -stoploss 42

MARKET TREND : SEPTEMBER 07 TO SEPTEMBER 11, 2009

2009-09-05T20:32:00.000-07:00

Contrary to the expectations of most of the investors and traders the market fell for first four days of the previous week and created and impression that it might close below 15000 but on Friday people had some respite as it went up by almost 300 points and closed above 15500 mark.

Market is experiencing a great deal of resistance near 16000 for more than a month. Every time it reaches that level we observe selling pressure and profit-booking. It is good that the market found its support near 15200 mark but what remains to be seen is whether the market overcomes the resistance near 16000.

US markets have closed positive on Friday and we can expect on that ground that our market will open with positive bias on Monday. One must, however, be cautious before going long. Unless it closes above 16000, I would prefer to stay away from buying. It is however not advisable to go short unless the market falls below 15200. According to my perception the present week is going to decide market trend at least for the period up to 2009-end. If market closes above 16200 then one can hope it to see 18000+ level within next 3-4 months but if it falls below 15000 then it might test 13800 first and 12500 if the situation worsens. The market has strong support near 13800. This may provide an opportunity to go long if market falls.

For present week the market has support levels of 15200 and 14750. It will face resistance near 15800 and 16200.

KEEP AN EYE ON "NTPC". It is a good buy at the level near 205 . First target 222 and then 243. Stoploss is 196.

MARKET TREND : AUGUST 31 TO SEPTEMBER 04, 2009

2009-08-29T00:45:00.000-07:00

The market, as expected remained bullish throughout the previous week and closed very near to 16000 mark on Friday. Most of the intraday losses were recovered everyday showing good strength in market. Monsoon has resumed and created a hope that the effect would not be as bad as anticipated during first week of August. Global markets are strong except Shanghai.

It appears that the market will continue its upward move during this week and will cross 16000 on the opening day. What remains to be seen is whether the market succeeds in closing above 16200 during first two days or not. This 16000+ is very crucial and if market holds above it during this week then we will witness 16800+ mark very soon. If market fails to hold above 16000 then Friday closing will be the indicator of future moves. If market closes below 15800 then one has to wait before becoming aggressively bullish.

Market support lies near 15800 and then 15500. It has resistance near 16200 and 16500. However the trend is bullish and most likely market will remain above 16000 mark.

The pick of the week is GNFC at 95-96 level. Its first target is 108 and next target is 126. Stoploss is 86.

INDIA CEMENT is another good stock to buy at current level of 133 with first target of 152 and long term target of 171. Its stoploss is 122.

A reader asked me about SESA GOA in his comment to my previous post. Let me admit that I do not follow this stock continuously so it is difficult to comment upon it. I advise you, however to wait before going long in this stock at this level.

MARKET TREND : AUGUST 24 TO AUGUST 28, 2009

2009-08-22T11:21:00.000-07:00

The market remained range-bound but highly volatile during the previous week. However, the undertone is greatly in favour of the BULLS and it appears that the market will discount monsoon worries in the days to come and will head towards 16000+ target for SENSEX. Global worries due to Shanghai phenomenon appear to have subsided and this factor may not affect the market henceforth.

Strategy for the current week must be of buying on dips and particularly of avoiding the temptation to go short at higher levels as the market is showing very good strength.

Market has support at 14800 and 14500 and will witness resistance near 15500 and 16200. Despite current bullish trend of the market it is very much difficult to predict whether it would be able to cross 16200 before showing strong correction. Equally much difficult it is to predict that the market will fall below 14200.

ORCHID CHEMICALS around 100 is a good buy and its long term target is 142. One can buy it with stop loss of 93.

There is some current in AFTEK INFO at 17 and it has potential to touch 24 in near future. Stop loss is 14.50

HFCL is another small-value stock around 12-12.50 which can cross 18 very quickly and in long run can touch 30 mark.

In one of my previous posts I had recommended IGL stating that it might surprise the market by crossing 200 mark in 2009. I reiterate my stand and suggest to buy it at 155-156.

MARKET TREND : AUGUST 17 TO AUGUST 21, 2009

2009-08-16T00:38:00.000-07:00

The market witnessed one-day-up-and-one-day-down mix during the previous week. It however did not show panic on either side. It went below 14800 but managed to recover and rise above 15000 but failed to close above 15500 on the last day. Monsoon is still a big worry and perhaps the only negative factor that creates hesitation at levels above 15500. The market is facing strong resistance above 15500 and has good support near 14800. The fundamentals appear strong compared to what was feared some six or nine months ago.

It appears that the market may not witness much upside or downside during this week and may remain range bound. It is still not giving clear indications as to whether it has turned really bullish or it has some weakness still left before taking a truly bullish curve. However the undercurrent appears to favour the BULLS and it is safer to be on bullish side unless the market breaks 13800 level. Unless SENSEX crosses 16200 the market may not show strong bull run. I believe that once the market closes above 16200 it will head towards 18000 mark rapidly. MUCH DEPENDS ON MONSOON.

My picks of the week are:
ASHOK LEYLAND (current price 36.75 Target 42.50 Stoploss 33.50)
HCL TECH (268, 296, 255)
RPOWER (163, 180, 156)
DCM SHRIRAM CON (67, 84, 60)

The market has support near 14800 and 14200. It has resistance near 15500 and 16200.

MARKET VIEW : AUGUST 10 TO AUGUST 14, 2009

2009-08-09T07:37:00.000-07:00

Market witnessed heavy selling pressure during last two days of the previous week much due to global weakness on Thursday and monsoon worries on Friday. After reaching 16000 mark on SENSEX we had profit booking in almost all sectors. The weakness may appear to drag market further down but at this stage it is very difficult to say that the market has weakened. There is still some strength based on liquidity and that keeps the hopes alive.

The opening day (Monday) will be crucial for this week and if market falls further then one has to think twice before going long. If market closes in the green (most likely to happen) then it may strengthen further in the days to come. SWINE FLU terror is an additional factor which may turn the sentiment negative if the spread of the disease catches new areas. The number of patients has risen alarmingly in last 48 hours and it has potential to worsen the situation further.

If on Monday the market closes below Friday's closing level then 'SELL' will be the better policy in coming days. If market closes in Green then revival is more likely and going long will be a wiser step. I am in favour of sectors like IT, POWER, METALS, INFRASTRUCTURE and AUTO. Watch IGL, TATA STEEL, WIPRO, TATA MOTORS, BHEL and buy on dips.

Market has support near 15200 and 14800. It has resistance near 15500 and 15800.

MARKET VIEW : AUGUST 3 TO AUGUST 7, 2009

2009-08-01T20:43:00.000-07:00

Yet another week of gains for the market whereby the market touched its 2009 high on SENSEX. The global markets too performed well and it appears that the trend might continue for a near future and market may achieve new 2009 high during this month only. The bulls are in full control of the market at present and unless something extremely negative happens the market will digest all other negatives and continue to move ahead.

IT, Infrastructure, Banking, Power and Auto sector appear strong. The market has all potential to slowly but strongly reach 16500 in near future and 18500 in the long run. It will cross 16000 during this week and continue to march ahead. The best strategy is to hold your long positions and add to it as and when market falls temporarily. However trading with strict stoploss is the key to success.

The market has resistance levels of 16200-16500 and 16800. It has support near 15200 and 14800. I reiterate that in worst situation the market is not likely to fall below 13800 in near future.

I recommend to buy : RPOWER, IGL, SATYAM, TATA MOTORS, GMR INFRA, CENTURY TEXTILE, HT MEDIA, BHEL, SONATA SOFTWARE.

MARKET TREND : JULY 27 TO JULY 31, 2009

2009-07-26T00:43:00.000-07:00

The market witnessed another good week for bulls. It has crossed 15200 mark quite easily during the week. Global markets too were strong indicating that during near term market is likely to remain bullish. Monsoon has accelerated in many parts of the country subsiding the fears of worst drought situation. Results of some companies are far better than expectations of the market. The mood is buoyant and strongly in favour of BULLS.

The week may start with positive note with market trying to touch and cross 16000 mark. On Thursday we have F & O settlement so market will be volatile initially and will then try to settle as Thursday comes closer. It would be wise to go long then to shortsell at this juncture. If bullish mood continues the August end target for market may be closer to 18000. Market has strong support near 13800 and is unlikely to witness that level during next month.

SENSEX may fluctuate between 14800 and 16300 during the week.

ASHOK LEYLAND (TARGET : 37.50), SATYAM (TARGET : 124) AND RPOWER (TARGET :184) are my PICKS of the week. Please trade with strict stoploss.

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MARKET TREND : JULY 20 TO JULY 24, 2009

2009-07-19T01:27:00.000-07:00

The market surprised everybody by taking sudden U turn from its bearish move that started after the budget and made sizeable gains during the previous week. The more important aspect is that it has smoothly crossed the level of 14200 and has closed well above it on Friday indicating that it has strong support around 13800 and is unlikely to register sharp fall in near future. However, volatility is going to increase as we are closer to F & O settlement in the next week. The driving force during previous week was Global strength and to some extent hopefully not-too-bad monsoon prospects.

The market has strong potential to cross 15000 mark during this week. Sector-wise IT, Banks and Auto appear much better. Scrip-wise INFOSYS, TCS, BOB, ICICI BANK, DABUR, ASHOK LEYLAND, RNRL, IGL, NTPC, ONGC, TATA STEEL, RPOWER look strong.

My picks of the week are GUJARAT ALKALI around 100 for long term target of 144 and HTMEDIA around 96 for short term target of 122 and long term target of 150.

Market has resistance around 14800 and 15200. It has support around 14200 and then 13800(strong support).

MARKET TREND : JULY 13 TO JULY 17, 2009

2009-07-12T08:13:00.000-07:00

The budget disappointed the market and as a result the market lost some ground during the week. It did struggle to stay above 13800 but ultimately closed around 13500 on Friday. Uneven and delayed monsoon too is a great factor of worry for the market.

It appears that market will still lose some further ground during this week. Since 13800 has been broken if market closes with sizeable loss on Monday then it would be sign of market becoming weak gradually. On weekly basis market is likely to register further loss.

SELL is the call of the week. Going long at this stage may put one in a fix for some time now. However, heavy selling in one stroke is not advised. Much depends on Global parameters and monsoon.

A few stocks that stand out include DABUR [recommended in previous posts at the level of about 115]. It is going strong and if it falls with the market, buy at each level with a long term target of 162. DCM SHRIRAM CON is another stock with great long-term potential. Its long term target is 84.

The market now has support near 13200 and then 12600. It has resistance at 13800 and then at 14200.

MARKET TREND : JULY 6 TO JULY 10, 2009

2009-07-04T21:04:00.000-07:00

This is a crucial week for the market and may decide the future course of the market depending on what type of Budget is presented on July 6. It is difficult to guess with certainty but the trend of the market during previous week, particularly after the presentation of Rail Budget is more in bull's favour and if the budget is market-friendly then the trend will continue strongly for near future taking the market first to 16500 and then to 18400 in the long run. Contrary to this if budget fails to cater to what market expects then the first support for the market lies near 13800 and if it is broken then market may see levels of 12600 and even further down, 11800. If 11800 breaks then market may find a new bottom before being stable at low levels.

My advice is to keep away if you are a small trader or investor and see what happens after budget. If one wants to take risk then it is better to go long in scrips like : RPOWER, NTPC, DABUR, GNFC, GUJARAT ALKALI, GMR INFRA, ONGC, BHEL, CENTURY TEXTILE, BOMBAY RAYON, and RIL with a strict stoploss.

MARKET VIEW : JUNE 29 TO JULY 03, 2009

2009-06-27T23:42:00.000-07:00

The market went below 14000 during previous week and then regained its lost ground to close once again with gain on weekly basis on Friday. The undercurrent is still strong but the most important factor that can drag market down is at present the MONSOON. It has delayed a bit longer and any further delay can be a great cause of concern. Water and power crisis in some major states and cities have started changing the equations. Though it is not too late but any further delay must be seen as a big negative for the economy and the market as well.

We will have Rail Budget this week. The market is likely to remain range bound till the Budget by FM on 6th July. Trading on any side is unpredictable due to upcoming budget and delayed monsoon. Government efforts are likely to suffer due to uneven monsoon. The strategy, therefore, should be to keep away from the market till 6th July. A wait-and-watch approach is better. Though the upside appears limited, the downward movement is also limited in present circumstances. If you are sitting on large cash you can take some risk when market falls by going long in certain frontline stocks.

Keep an eye on DABUR, IGL, GMR INFRA, RPOWER, RPL, HT MEDIA, NTPC, ONGC and TATA MOTORS.

The support for market is near 13800 and 13500. The resistance is near 14800 and 15200.

MARKET VIEW : JUNE 22 TO JUNE 26, 2009

2009-06-20T20:51:00.000-07:00

After a long time the market closed with loss on weekly basis and a real correction happened. However there was no panic selling seen and this is a good sign. The market has corrected at right time. Though all is not well the Indian market has some positives over other markets and that is the reason why it has outperformed.

This week we have F & O settlement and then we have a major incident during the first week of July as the FM is going to present budget on July 6. During this time period the market is likely to remain range-bound though the first 3-4 days may see some volatility. It appears that the traders and some big operators may unwind their long positions to play safe. This may bring in some losses for market during this week.

Buy good scrips during the fall in the market with a risk that the budget may disappoint and there may be some loss. If so happens one must be ready to book loss immediately after the budget. The undercurrent is still strong and encouraging for bulls. I therefore advise not to SHORT-SELL in the falling market as it is much more dangerous than going long.

The market is likely to remain between 13800 and 15200 during the week with some negative bias. One should be extremely careful during next 15 days or so and should not trade heavily on either side.

MARKET VIEW : JUNE 15 TO JUNE 19, 2009

2009-06-14T01:11:00.000-07:00

The market observed comparatively less turbulence during previous week. The SENSEX and NIFTY, however, closed with gains. It seems that the market is experiencing stiff resistance above 15300 and it may take some time before market overcomes this level and heads towards 16000 mark. The near term possibility of market falling sharply is ruled out but market may witness some correction in this week or the next week. This correction should be used to go long as the strength of the market is intact the potential for the market to fall below 13800 is nearly zero for near future.

RPOWER appears very strong at this level. It is a good BUY at 190 level as its first target is 207 and if it manages to cross it then the next target is 237.

IGL is going strong at about 140+ level. It may surprise the market during 2009 by crossing the level of 200.

DABUR is in consolidation phase around 114. Its near term target is 135.

The strategy during this week is that if market falls by 300-400 points, grab the opportunity to buy good stocks as it is unlikely that the market will keep on falling. It is supposed to swing between 14500 and 15750 during the week with positive bias.

MARKET THIS WEEK : JUNE 8 TO JUNE 12, 2009

2009-06-06T20:18:00.000-07:00

The bulls appear to have upper hand and have strengthened further. The market closed above 15000 at the end of the previous week. It appears that the market is unlikely to give in during a week or two and we may witness more strength this week and in the week to come. The long-awaited correction does not occur except that market exhibits intra-day corrections. However, one must now practise caution because it has attained a level from where it may show sharp correction after gaining some ground initially during this week. Keep on booking profit at higher levels and during sharp correction re-enter the market. Some mid-cap and small-cap shares have shown smart gains and have outperformed the market. It is safer to keep a distance from some stocks in these categories and better to keep interest in large-cap frontline stocks.

NTPC, NEYVELI LIGNITE, RPOWER, IGL, DABUR, CENTURY TEXTILE, DISH TV, DCM SHRIRAM CON, TCS, look good.

The market has resistance near 15300 and then near 15750. It has support levels of 14800 and 14200.

MARKET THIS WEEK : JUNE 1 TO JUNE 5, 2009

2009-05-30T20:40:00.000-07:00

The bullish trend continued during the previous week as expected. Whether we call it 'bear-market rally' or 'a really bullish turn around', the fact is that the market has displayed a strong upward trend and it is not reacting as expected by most of the analysts. The way it is going indicates that at present the market will discount all bad parameters and disclosure of any such factor, local or global, will have little effect on market trend at least for a couple of weeks from now. The market may not react sharply or if it does so due to any reason it is all likely to regain the lost ground within very short period and to continue its bull run.

Almost all sectors are performing well but I think sugar, power and metal stocks are more likely to outperform the market. As and when market reacts buy good scrips keeping a strict stoploss and keep profit margin predecided at about 20-25% and if you reach that level book profit for once because once the market crosses 15000 mark on SENSEX it is expected to react any moment.

The way market has behaved above 13800 level has created a strong expectation of market trying to reach 18500 level in the days to come. But one should not make 18500 a goal and be wise to exit at least partially from the market slowly above 16500 if market catches that level.

The trading range for market during this week is expected to be between 13800 and 15300.

MARKET VIEW : MAY 25 TO MAY 29, 2009

2009-05-24T07:39:00.000-07:00

The market made historic gains on the very first day of the last week on the hopes that we have a more stable government at the center led by Dr. Manmohan Singh. During rest of the week market tried to settle around 14000 on SENSEX.

The government has partially been formed and more is yet to come but at present it appears that all is going well on that front and at least for short term we have nothing to worry as far as political situation is concerned. The budget is expected in mid-July.

In absence of other major factors the market is more likely to be driven positively with hopes of some budgetory declarations in favour of the market. Though, 'LEFT' has been left aside by the people, one factor of worry comes from the same state of West Bengal in the form of MAMTA BANERJEE who might pressurise the govt in a way not favourable to the market. Global turbulence tilting the market one way one day and the other way the next day will also play its role in restricting the market from making major gains in near future. However, the short term undertone is very strong in favour of bulls and market in no way will fall sharply.

We have settlement of F & O during this week. It will make market highly volatile. The best strategy now is BUY WHEN MARKET FALLS AND BOOK PROFIT WHEN IT JUMPS BACK. NO SHORTSELL PLEASE. The SENSEX is likely to remain in the range of 13200 to 14500 during this week.

MARKET VIEW : MAY 18 TO MAY 23, 2009

2009-05-17T07:43:00.000-07:00

SINGH IS KING AND CONGRESS KI JAI HO GAI !!!

The elections are over and the results are out. Once again the people of India have exhibited that they are wise enough to decide WHO IS BETTER AS PRIME MINISTER AND WHICH PARTY HAS BETTER VISION. The results of 2009 elections have surprised all including the victorious Congress Party. Everybody foresaw a hung parliament but people ultimately chose the better option of stability at the Center.

Obviously, the market on Monday will react positively and will open up with huge gap. The shorts will rush to buy and those who were waiting on the sideline for election results will rush to go long in anticipation that the market will move further up in days to come. We may expect market to cross 13000 mark on sensex and 3900 mark on NIFTY in a couple of days.

The big question is how long can market go from here? Will election results prove a trigger for the market to turn really bullish? Is the bear phase over?

It is difficult at this stage to say where the market would head except that for this week we will witness smart gains by the market. To me, it appears that the market will try to cross 13800 mark where major resistance lies. This level will be hard to cross but if at all market crosses that level then we will have to change our view and accept that the bearish phase is over and in near future market will not witness sub-10000 level. Besides that the market can see levels as high as 18000 if it closes above 13800 level for a couple of days with positive bias.

I, however, caution that it would be unwise to jump in when market rises sharply. There are ample chances that at levels above 12800 some profit booking may occur. We may face heavy profit booking near 13800 level if market somehow manages to reach that mark. STRICT WARNING : SHORTSELLERS ARE VULNERABLE TO HEAVY LOSSES. DO NOT TRY SHORTSELL AT LEAST DURING THIS WEEK.

MARKET VIEW : APRIL 27 TO MAY 01, 2009

2009-04-26T11:05:00.000-07:00

The pre-election rally is intact as the market observed gain of about 2.5% both in SENSEX and NIFTY during the previous week. It appears that the market will try hard to remain above 11000 during this week and it may see the level of 11500+ for once. We have F & O settlement this Wednesday. The bulls are likely to hold strongly till the last day of settlement. This bear-market rally is more likely to end after this week as we near the day of election results. I expect the market to react strongly during the days to come after this week. This week or a couple of days in the beginning of the next week would provide last opportunity to EXIT before the present rally ends for some period until the formation of the next government.

Nothing new to say...EXIT IF YOU ARE SITTING ON PROFITS AND IF YOU FEEL YOU HAVE MISSED THE TRAIN DURING THIS RALLY THEN WAIT A LITTLE FURTHER TILL MAY 16 BECAUSE IT IS NOT ADVISABLE TO ENTER THE MARKET AT THIS LEVEL.

[NOTE : I may not be able to write for next couple of weeks due to some personal reasons. I regret my absence.]

STOCK MARKET : APRIL 20 TO APRIL 24, 2009

2009-04-18T00:39:00.000-07:00

[Once again I could not write my post for previous week as the network service did not work on crucial days from Friday to Sunday.]

The previous week ended with gains and market closed above 11000. However, the market appears to have tired because on last two days it started strong but could not sustain gains to greater extent indicating that it has very strong resistance near 11200.

The political situation that may emerge after the elections is not at all much clear and that may be a worrying factor for market to go further. If Congress or BJP fail to form the government at Center, the only option available is the government headed by anyone from Mayawati, Mulayam Singh, a LEFT PARTY LEADER or someone who has upper hand in the so-called Third and Fourth fronts. The market will not be able to digest this fact and the only consequence of Congress and BJP failing to come to power will be that the market will nose-dive for a very long time.

We are still in a long term bear market(I have been telling this repeatedly) and the present rally may continue for a week or two but this is definitely not the reversal of trend. This rally should be used as an EXIT opportunity only instead of taking fresh positions. The INFOSYS results are not much encouraging and in the days to come the results of other companies too may also disappoint the market. I am, however, not much worried about results as the greater harm to market may come out of the ballot boxes that will be opened on May 16.

As stated earlier, I recommend TO STAY AWAY FROM THE MARKET TILL MAY 16 OR TO UTILISE THIS PRE-ELECTION RALLY TO MAKE SAFE EXIT.

INDIAN STOCK MARKET : APRIL 6 TO APRIL10

2009-04-04T11:01:00.000-07:00

The market witnessed yet another week of handsome gains. As mentioned it went near 9600 and got support there to regain lost ground and further go up above 10200 mark. It is well above 10200 mark on SENSEX and is likely open with some gains on Monday. It may try to reach the level of 10800 during first two days.

Nobody is sure to state whether the current behaviour of the market, particularly during previous two weeks, is the end of bear market or it is bear market rally which may extend further for a couple of days or weeks. Most experts are in a state of confusion.

I am not an expert but I strongly believe that the bear market is not over and we are in a long term bear market. The current gains made by market are not supposed to last longer. Yes, this time the rally is strong and we might not see the market fall to levels below 8000 before election results are actually out. Much depends on how the global scenario changes. People are still worried about recession and its long term effects on economies of the world. All those bail out packages seem to have worked at present but will the situation not worsen ? or Is the worst yet to emerge? Nobody is sure.

As far as India is concerned, a lot depends on election results and the shape of the new government. Therefore, it would be wise to stay away from the market till elections are over and results are out. Entering the market at this level may not be advisable. In fact, those who missed out may use present rally for making exit. SELL AND GET YOUR MONEY BACK TO YOUR BANK ACCOUNTS AND WAIT FOR THE TREND THAT EMERGES AFTER ELECTIONS. IF YOU FEEL THE MARKET HAS TURNED BULLISH THEN DO NOT SELL NOW BUT I ADVISE YOU NOT TO GO LONG AT THESE LEVELS. I REITERATE MY WORDS :PATIENCE PAYS.

The next resistance level is 10800 and immediate support levels are 10200 and 9600.

INDIAN STOCK MARKET : MARCH 30 TO APRIL 4, 2009

2009-03-28T00:33:00.000-07:00

[I regret my absence last week due to some problem with my network connection which did not allow me to write my view for the market.]

The market managed to cross psychological level of 10000 on SENSEX and 3000 on NIFTY. In all, SENSEX gained by about 11%. This may lead one to think that the market has turned positive. True, for some time now the market has become bullish but one should not forget that we are still in a long-term bearish market and such gains are supposed to prove short-lived. One should not become aggressive in going long because the true picture of where the market would head to will emerge only after May 16. In between such short-term rallies should be used to make EXIT and book profits wherever possible. Again, one should refrain from going short at any level till May 16 because a market in oversold position may shoot up any moment and that is what exactly has happened during the previous week.

As I have been mentioning for last several weeks the best strategy would be to keep away from the market when until a clear cut trend emerges in favour of the bulls. Another somewhat risky approach is of buying good shares when market falls sharply with a condition that you might have to wait for long before the market actually turns bullish.

This week the market may see some profit booking at levels near 10200/3150(on NIFTY) and may fall below 10000. 10200 is a resistance level and 9600 is support level for the market. If market manages to recover further then sell/book profit near 10200/3150. IT IS NOT ADVISABLE TO STRETCH LONG POSITIONS IN ANY SCRIP HOPING TO EARN BIG PROFITS. KEEP ON BOOKING PROFITS WHEN MARKET JUMPS AND RE-ENTER THE MARKET AT LOWER LEVELS.

STOCK MARKET WATCH : MARCH 16 TO MARCH 20, 2009

2009-03-14T06:42:00.000-07:00

The previous week gave some relief to the market and after falling close to 8000 the market recovered on the backing of good global parameters, particularly from US markets. However, the market is close to 8800 mark where it is likely to face stiff resistance. The recent recovery of the market must not be treated as a turning point because we are still in a bear market and this type of relief rallies should be used as an opportunity to book profits or make exit from long positions. Much of the gains made by market are only due to over-sold positions being squared off and not due to broad based buying interest.

The next two-three months will be crucial for the market and the results of elections are going to decide the fate of the market. The most likely picture that emerges at present is indicating towards markets falling further as we reach the month of May. Globally, recession is not going to end soon and its effect on India's economy coupled with political uncertainty that may emerge after elections is most likely to bring markets further down. Besides, the Pakistan factor is going to affect our economy negatively to some extent.

The strategy for the time being remains same : SELL NEAR 8800 AND BUY LATER BELOW 8000, PREFERABLY BELOW 7500 (PATIENCE PAYS). The market has strong resistance levels near 8800 and 9100 and support levels near 8400 and 8100.

INDIAN STOCK MARKET : MARCH 09 TO MARCH13, 2009

2009-03-07T09:12:00.000-08:00

The market after a long time closed below 8800 during previous week and on Friday closed at about 8325 level losing more than 550 points. As mentioned in my previous post this was the last chance for market to sustain over 8800. Since it has closed well below 8800 it is likely to deteriorate further in later half of the month. Global markets are also losing ground continuously and our market is likely to follow the same. The situation may worsen until the formation of the next parliament and the government in Center because nobody is sure of UPA and Mr Manmohan Singh returning to power or the BJP getting sufficient majority to form the next government. All other options which may lead to a weak coalition government headed by someone like Mayawati or Mulayam Singh would bring SENSEX down to unexpected level. We cannot expect fresh investments by big institutional players until a clear picture emerges and therefore the market is not expected to do better before elections are over. In absence of liquidity and big players market will continue to lose ground slowly.

Market has support near 8100 and then near 7700. It will have resistance near 8500 and then near 8800. 8800 which acted as a strong support level during recent period is likely to act like a strong resistance level now as and when the market tries to go up. The best strategy is to wait for market to fall below 7500 which is most likely and then start buying good scrips without hesitation with the condition that you might have to wait for 6-9 months before the real upward move sets in.

STOCK MARKET TREND : MARCH 02 TO MARCH 06, 2009

2009-02-27T19:04:00.000-08:00

The market struggled throughout the previous week to stay above 8800 and could manage to hold that level on Friday when it closed. Intra-day it did fall below that level for more than once but did not close below 8800. This shows that 8800 is a very strong support level and every time market falls and goes below 9000 it gets support there and then it becomes positive for a short term. However, if the market closes below that level for two consecutive days then one could expect it to witness FREE FALL and to find its major support near 7500.

In the prevailing global situation the bias will remain on negative side and unfolding of effects of recession on more countries and more sectors of economy may bring market further down in future. The possibility of market going up in near future is almost nil and all gains would be short term relief rallies backed by some positive news, the effect of which may not last longer. If market gets support at 8800 and reverts back to cross 9000 then its first resistance level will be 9200. It is unlikely to cross 9600 in a week or two. The market is most likely to open gap down on Monday as we had weak closing on Friday for DOW and NASDAQ. Clearly, this will be the last chance for the SENSEX to sustain above 8800 and if 8800 is broken and market fails to close above it the situation may worsen. I FIRMLY BELIEVE THAT THE TIME IS NOT RIPE TO MAKE PURCHASES UNTIL MARKET FALLS BELOW 7500.

STOCK MARKET TREND : FEBRUARY 23 TO FEBRUARY 27, 2009

2009-02-21T06:42:00.000-08:00

The market lost heavily during previous week due to the interim budget being a great disappointment as there was nothing that market expected to come as a stimulatory factor for the economy. The Friday closing however was very close to 8800 but on positive side because if market closes below 8800 level it will lose more ground in days to come. Besides budget, the major factor to have contributed to the fall is the weakness in Global markets. DOW closed well below 7500 on Friday indicating that it may go further down. If it happens then our market is also very close to witness a sharp fall during this week. 8800 is, as mentioned time and again, a strong support and once it is broken the market is likely to witness Oct 2008 lows very soon. Will market find bottom now ? It appears that the market will now weaken further till next general elections are over and the results are declared because much will depend on the structure of next parliament as well as the next government. Until then the market has little potential to cross 10000 mark.

This week we have F & O settlement and it might cause the overall sentiment to remain negative. Some months ago I had written in one of my posts that THE BOTTOM LIES NEAR 6100. I stick to my view and feel that we will see SENSEX fall below 7000 in near future. The strategy must be that of remaining passive for some time until market falls below 7500 and then start buying good scrips though the market has potential fear of falling further. Sub-7500 level is good to start taking risk and accumulate strong scrips for a comparatively long time of about 6-12 months.

STOCK TRADING TIPS : FEBRUARY 16 TO FEBRUARY 20, 2009

2009-02-14T10:01:00.000-08:00

The market as expected gained behind some expectations of better steps by Government in interim budget and managed to cross the level of 9600 to close above it marginally during the previous week. The trend though is not much hopeful for long term bullishness and global markets have closed weak on Friday. The Indian market, however, may open positive on Monday and may try to cross 10000 mark this week. As mentioned previously, the market has strong resistance near 10200 and if it reaches there one should book profits because the gains are not likely to sustain longer. However, if it manages to cross 10200 then, 10800 is the next resistance level. I believe that the level of 10200 is very difficult to cross and the market may not be able to sustain above it for longer period. The best strategy during such times is to remain passive and wait for market to settle and show clear signs of recovery. At present the liquidity available to market is very limited and one cannot expect much money entering the market in near future in present recessive period. I have mentioned some scrips to watch in my previous posts. Keep a close watch on them.

STOCK MARKET TREND : FEBRUARY 9 TO FEBRUARY 13, 2009

2009-02-06T23:52:00.000-08:00

The market has clearly become range-bound as its movement has been restricted between 8800 and 9600. It appears that the market will show some gains this week in anticipation to some relief measures in interim budget. It will try to cross 9600 during the week and may witness 10000 level in a couple of weeks. If so, I advise to use this rise for making safe EXIT from the market because there is strong resistance near 10200 mark and market is unlikely to cross it. IT, Realty and Auto sector seem to be in big trouble. One should think twice before entering these sectors as India is yet to observe worse effects of global recession in these sectors. These effects will be more clear during next result season. Pharma, Power and FMCG sectors appear more attractive and are likely to give good returns in future irrespective of overall market trend. In present scenario there is nothing in favour of market and every time some positive declaration comes the market will try to go up but is unlikely to sustain at higher levels. I reiterate my strategy of SELL DURING PULL BACK RALLY because these rallies will not stay for long.

STOCK MARKET TREND : FEBRUARY 2 TO FEBRUARY 6, 2009

2009-01-31T08:56:00.000-08:00

The market managed to gain support below 8800 level on SENSEX and overcame the resistance around 9200 indicating that there is still some support left near 9000 mark. However, the US markets closed weak on Friday with DOW closing at 8000 which is not a good sign. The market may open with slightly nervous mood on Monday or if at all it makes some gains it will find resistance near 9600 from where it may come back. If the market manages to cross 9600 without much difficulty then next resistance level is 10200 which is a strong resistance level and I believe that the market is unlikely to cross this mark in near future. The bearish trend is still on and all efforts to boost market are likely to give short term results but the gains will hardly sustain for long. It is wise to SELL if market shows some bullishness and wait for opportunity to come because in present situation nobody would expect markets to turn bullish again. The liquidity problems are still intact and recession is showing no signs of being over in 2-3 months time despite stimulus packages.

We have general elections in April-May,2009 and no wise player [individual or institutional] will prefer to go too long in the market unless a clear picture of next government unfolds in the month of May.

BUY : BHEL, CAIRNS, DABUR, RPOWER, NEYVELLI LIGNITE, TORRENT POWER AND NTPC for long term portfolio.

STOCK MARKET TREND : JANUARY 26 TO JANUARY 30, 2009

2009-01-23T23:31:00.000-08:00

The market struggled to remain above 8800 but ultimately closed far below that strong support level during previous week. This clearly shows the weakness in the market and it will be reflected more strongly in the days to come. The market has closed below 8800 after a long period. It is bound to deteriorate further and may witness levels below 7500 in near future. The reasons for this are that with the results of RIL out, the major results are out now and there will be little positive effect of results that are yet to come even if they beat the street. So as a trigger for positive trend results have lost their significance. The Markets will open on Tuesday and we will have F & O settlement this week. This will make market more volatile. Global markets are weakening day by day and all eyes are on OBAMA FACTOR.

I am sure that now the markets are heading towards south and may break October 2008 lows before the end of this quarter or during the initial weeks of the next quarter. The best strategy according to me is that one keeps his/her money intact and waits for market to fall below 7500 and then starts buying good stocks like RIL, BANK SHARES, POWER SHARES, and some FMCG stocks like ITC and HLL with the condition that the market may fall further up to sub-6500 levels.

Support levels for this week are 8400 and 8100 whereas resistance levels are 8800 and 9200.

INDIAN STOCK MARKET : JANUARY 19 TO JANUARY 23, 2009

2009-01-17T05:45:00.000-08:00

The market witnessed alternate good and bad days during previous week and ultimately closed about a percent lower than the week before. One good news and it jumps; one bad news and it falls. All the global markets fell comparatively badly than ours. SENSEX has great support near 8800 and it did go below 9000 but managed to stage a come back. However, in present circumstances it has little chance of crossing 10200 and one should be cautious while going long.

This week the market may open positive on Monday and may try to cross 9600. It has got resistance there and whether the gains would sustain is a question. FIIs were net sellers during the week and they appear to utilize each and every opportunity to exit whenever market jumps. This is an indicator that the market will face much difficulty at levels higher than 9600.

RPOWER, NTPC, NEYVELLI LIGNITE, DABUR, INFOSYS, RCOM, etc are some of the stocks to watch.

MARKET TO REMAIN RANGE BOUND BETWEEN 8800 AND 10200.

STOCK MARKET TREND : JANUARY 12 TO JANUARY 16, 2009

2009-01-09T08:42:00.000-08:00

As expected the market opened strong during the previous week and tried to overcome the resistance level of 10200 mark. It indeed had a short-lived triumph over that resistance but then RAJU'S SATYAM spoiled the entire game and the sentiment again deteriorated. Wednesday and then Friday, the market lost about 900+ points and it is likely to lose more ground in the days to come as the SATYAM BLOW may prove more harmful than one could have expected. At present all factors are against the BULLS and as I have been telling repeatedly this market is more likely to witness the levels below 7000 in future before any real BULL trend establishes.

The market may get temporary support near 8800 mark on sensex during this week but if it breaks that level then the situation might worsen further. The next support lies near 8450 but once 8800 is broken and the market closes below it then it will take a long time before it can show sizeable recovery. Now, we will have result season and if the results are not to the expectation of the market, the fall will be greater but if the results are better than expected then there will be temporary jumps only and these short-term rises will provide an opportunity to make safe exit. I ADVISE TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS DURING SUCH RISES AND NOT TO BE LURED BY SO CALLED ATTRACTIVE PRICES BECAUSE THE CURRENT RECESSION AND BEARISH MOOD ARE GOING TO LAST LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

STOCK MARKET TREND : JANUARY 5 TO JANUARY 9, 2009

2009-01-03T09:21:00.000-08:00

The market could manage to cross 10000 mark during previous week but failed to sustain above it indicating that there is still some weakness left in the market and every time market tries to reach the 10200 level we see some selling pressure. There are, however, two major positive factors that might help market cross this barrier for once in the next week. After the close of the market on Friday, we had first good news from the policy-makers RBI-Government and then second good news from American markets (DOW closing above 9000). The market is likely to open up on Monday with bullish mood. What is important is whether it would be able to sustain those gains during the week or not. All the temporary measures taken by any government (USA or INDIA) have failed to support the market for long and after one or two euphoric jumps followed by such announcements, the market starts again to go down.

If market manages to cross 10200 mark and closes above it then one could expect it to witness 10800. If it fails to sustain above 10200 mark during this week then it will be a sure signal of tremendous weakness in the market and the market will definitely test OCT, 2008 lows. I advise to grab the opportunity to SELL if market rises as we are still in a long-term bearish zone and such rises are going to prove only temporary upward reactions.

RESISTANCE : 10200 AND 10800

SUPPORT : 9600

STOCK MARKET TREND : DECEMBER 29, 2008 TO JANUARY 02, 2009

2008-12-27T23:51:00.000-08:00

HAPPY NEW YEAR

The market failed to cross 10200 during previous week and gradually lost about 770 points on sensex. The possibility of war or war-like situation coupled with other negative factors may bring the market further down to 8800 level where the SENSEX has a strong support. As mentioned earlier this market is all likely to witness levels below 7000 in future before stabilising and then getting a trigger for fresh upward move. However, none should expect the market to rise sharply in near future as negatives still have upper hand over the positives. Levels below 8800 will provide opportunity for buying good scrips despite the possibility of market witnessing sub-7000 levels. The only thing one has to keep in mind while going long at this juncture is that your investment must be for a long period like more than a year or so and you must be investing your money slowly in small lots. Those who have enough liquidity and enough patience are sure to make huge gains in future, say, after a year or so.

SUPPORT LEVELS : 8800, 8400

RESISTANCE LEVELS : 9600, 10200

INDIAN STOCK MARKET : DECEMBER 22 TO DECEMBER 26, 2008

2008-12-20T00:08:00.000-08:00

The market witnessed yet another good week so far as the sentiment is concerned and as predicted went above 10000 mark and closed above 10000 on Friday. It appears that the short term positive bias may continue for a couple of days in next week and market may try to cross 10200 and then 10800 mark. This is the level where market is all likely going to witness strong resistance and it will be difficult for the market to see the level of 11000 immediately. I believe that 10800 is the upper limit at present and we will observe strong selling pressure around 10800. Any upward movement in the market should be seen as SHORT TERM REACTION since we have had sharp fall of the market from 21000+ level to below 8000 level within a very short span of about nine months. The worst does have subsided but has not been over and the world is going to observe more of the recession in future. The markets are still under tremendous pressure of RECESSION.

Since there will be a festive mood of X'mas in Western markets we will have not much clue coming our way from global front and local factors will dominate the scene. The market is likely to show narrow range activity for next couple of weeks and the bias will definitely be on downward side. Wisdom lies in the fact that one keeps his money intact for better opportunity is still to come and those who have already invested are advised to wait and watch before investing further. Also, keep on booking profits wherever you have an opportunity to do so.

I may sound a bit pessimistic but let me clarify that this is not pessimism but a word of caution as the bear-cycle is not over.

INDIAN STOCK MARKET : DECEMBER 15 TO DECEMBER 19, 2008

2008-12-13T07:48:00.000-08:00

The market witnessed short term gains as predicted in my previous post. The market is likely to face some resistance at this level around 9600. It may, however, show some gains and may manage to cross 10000 mark to find resistance near 10200. If market reaches 10200 mark then one should for once book profits or wait before going long. If it manages to sustain above 10200 mark then next strong resistance will surface at 10800 and market most likely will not be able to manage to cross that mark or will fall back once it has crossed it. One may remain invested for short time but time is not ripe enough to expect market to sustain for long time. A couple of bad news will immediately bring the market down sharply. Even if everything appears to go well one must not forget that we are slowly marching towards GENERAL ELECTIONS and only after the elections are over a clear trend may emerge. Going long aggressively during next 2-3 months may prove fatal for your liquidity.

Though the market appears to have bottomed out I am of the opinion that it still has all possibilities of testing recent lows around 7500 mark and may even go further down to levels below 6500 once elections are declared. It would be wise to wait for the declaration of election dates and to see what impact elections could have on the prospects of our market.

INDIAN STOCK MARKET : DECEMBER 8 TO DECEMBER 12,2008

2008-12-06T22:19:00.000-08:00

The market seems to have stabilised for a short term around 9000 and it appears that it would not fall sharply for some time now. 8800 is providing good support to the SENSEX and it is unlikely to be broken in near future. However, there are little chances of SENSEX crossing 10000 mark as the market will witness strong resistance around 9500 and then 10200. If it manages to cross 10000 mark then it would be wise to book profits. If market falls below 8800 then it it likely to witness the level of 8400. In any case I would either stay away from going long in present situation and would prefer to offload at levels above 9600.

The driving force for the market at present is some remedial steps taken by different governments and controllong authorities like the RBI and its counterparts in other countries. These steps are temporary and one must not make any haste of assuming that these steps could annihilate the effects of recession for long. This recession is spreading to different parts of the world and in the days to follow we might observe its worst effects on global economy.

One stock that comes to my mind at this juncture is INDRAPRASTHA GAS - IGL, and I advise those with proper liquidity to accumulate this scrip slowly without thinking of selling it in near future.

INDIAN STOCK MARKET : NOV 17 TO NOV 21, 2008

2008-11-16T06:01:00.000-08:00

The market has become range bound and is swinging between 8800 and 10800. I strongly believe that this market is unlikely to cross 11000 mark in near future and any such gains should be utilised as an opportunity to SELL or EXIT from your long position. I reiterate that

THE BOTTOM LIES NEAR 6100 AND THIS MARKET IS IN A LONG TERM BEARISHNESS

I am going for a mini vacation due to some domestic reasons and will not write for next two weeks. I advise all of you to WAIT AND WATCH and NOT TO HURRY.

INDIAN STOCK MARKET : NOV 10 TO NOV 14, 2008

2008-11-08T08:51:00.000-08:00

The market managed to remain where it was last week making marginal gains during previous week. It could not cross 11000 on SENSEX and closed below 10000. It has given clear signs that it is experiencing strong resistance at higher levels indicating that there is little chance of market going above 13800 mark in near future. However, in present situation it is less likely to fall below 9000 as it has got strong support near 8800 for short time. We might observe a pattern in the behaviour of the market similar to the previous week with SENSEX swinging between 9000 and 11000 during present week.

I strongly believe that this market has entered a long term bearish phase and in the days to come we might observe the SENSEX falling again below 8000. My recommendation is that one should remain calm and not be in hurry to buy when market falls unless one has enough liquidity and one is ready to wait for a very very long period. Short term investors should sit on their cash until the market gives clear signs of reversal. If, however, the market manages to cross 11000 in near future every rise should be utilised to book profits. SELL is still my advice.

The million dollar question is : WHERE DOES THE BOTTOM LIE ? I think that the bottom lies near 6100 !!!

INDIAN STOCK MARKET : NOV 03 TO NOV 07, 2008

2008-11-01T00:53:00.000-07:00

The previous week started with a weak note but ended with some hopeful gains. The market seems to have entered a short term bullish trend and is likely to open positive on Monday. It does not appear to have a tendency of going down below 8000 for at least a couple of weeks. However, it has a very limited upside from here onwards and one must not go long aggressively as every rise will now observe selling pressure. Simultaneously, it would be suicidal to go short, particularly for those who are intra-day players.

Though market will show recovery, I still advise to SELL at higher levels and book profit above 10500 level. The global recession is to last longer than people's expectation and all those steps taken by respective governments will have temporary relief effect on the market. Such relief rallies should be utilised only to EXIT from the market because the gains are not likely to sustain long. The market is unlikely to cross 13800 on SENSEX for next 4-5 months. During first half of November it may remain between 8800 and 10800.

RESISTANCE : 10500 and 10800

SUPPORT : 9500 and 8800

INDIAN STOCK MARKET : OCT 27 TO OCT 31, 2008

2008-10-24T11:09:00.000-07:00

The market swung a lot during the previous week. For first two days it went up and got resistance near 10800 mark as predicted and then fell sharply for next three days to surprise everybody on the negative side. The trend is indeed bearish and nobody expected market to rise sharply but simultaneously nobody expected it to fall by almost 1100 points on the last day. Market has broken its major support near 8800 and for last several weeks it has been making new lows every week indicating that the market is weak beyond imagination. Every morning the sun rises with some bad news for the market.

This week we will have DIWALI MUHURT TRADING which is likely to remain lacklustre. We have F & O settlement and truncated week due to festive season. It appears that the market is nearing its bottom but that does not guarantee any sharp reversal of trend. Once the market stabilises near the bottom it will swing in a narrow range for some time and this may take months or even a year or two before it starts rising again to enter bullish zone. At present, every time the market tries to jump, it will observe selling pressure. Those sitting on cash are still waiting for market to fall further and those who make entry during sharp fall become sellers the moment the market jumps beyond certain limit. This trend will continue for some time now.

I would prefer to enjoy DIWALI by keeping away from the market whatever turn it takes during this week.

HAPPY DIWALI AND BULLISH NEW YEAR

INDIAN STOCK MARKET : OCT 20 TO OCT 24, 2008

2008-10-18T00:35:00.000-07:00

I had mentioned in my previous post that we might observe a pullback rally but it would not be able to sustain. The market did go up for first two days of the previous week but finally gave in and closed below 10000 mark after a very long period of about two and a quarter years. I was wrong in judging the sector responsible for gains. I believed that the RELIANCE GROUP might drive it up but actual drivers were the bank shares.

It appears now that the market is going to deteriorate further in the beginning of the week and we might observe SENSEX going below 9000 mark. The sentiment is too weak and every time the market rises the FIIs become huge sellers giving an indication that the market may have to wait very long before the liquidity returns to it. Every time some good news strikes the market it tries to go up or recover but at higher levels people become seller and market falls again.

Though valuations look attractive one has to wait before the market settles because negative factors keep on surfacing every day and drag the SENSEX down to new lows. The strategy should be to KEEP AWAY COMPLETELY from the market for time being until the market stabilises. This particularly applies to those who operate with small capital. If you have enough liquidity and if you are ready to wait for more than a year then you can buy stocks like RIL, INFOSYS, SATYAM, TATA STEEL, RPOWER, RPL, TCS, IGL, DABUR, HLL, ITC, L & T, BHEL, SESA GOA, NTPC, NEYVELLI LIGNITE, HT MEDIA, RANBAXY, DR REDDY'S LAB, FERTILISER and REFINERY shares with good potential. Buy these stocks when market falls but DO NOT BUY IN BIG LOTS. Go on increasing your portfolio slowly and keep in mind the possibility of your money getting freezed in these stocks for a longer period. Patience does pay in this market but if your strategy is not timed well you might lose.

SENSEX has support near 9600 and 8800 and Resistance near 10500, 10800.

INDIAN STOCK MARKET : OCT 13 TO OCT 17, 2008

2008-10-11T01:09:00.000-07:00

The previous week was one of the worst in the history of stock markets of the whole world and India was not an exception. The market has made a new low and still the bottom does not appear to have been reached. Now, people are talking about SENSEX falling to sub-10000 levels and touching 8000. The level at which the market is operating at present does not give any sure signs of where the market can go. The psychology has changed to a great extent and people now have turned truly bearish.

I am sure the market is yet to see its bottom but at present it seems that the market may not fall rapidly now and even may witness some short term pullback due to short covering and may create an impression that the worst is over. THE WORST IS NOT OVER but any such pullback should be utilised to book profits if you have created a long position during previous week. GOING SHORT AT THIS LEVEL IS HIGHLY RISKY. I feel that the RELIANCE GROUP stocks may help the market to come out to some extent from present downfall but the pullback may not last long to reverse the trend. The market is unlikely to cross 13800 in near future because of lack of liquidity. In my previous posts I had repeatedly mentioned that THE BULL RUN DURING LAST QUARTER OF 2007 WAS ONLY DUE TO LIQUIDITY AND NOT THE FUNDAMENTALS.

Anybody having liquidity can now initiate buying good frontline stocks as long-term investment(one may have to wait for even a year or more before the stocks give good returns). SPECULATORS with small capital should keep away from the market until it gives clear indication of having bottomed out.

BUY RELIANCE POWER

INDIAN STOCK MARKET : OCT 06 TO OCT 10

2008-10-03T23:58:00.000-07:00

The previous week was a disappointing one and the market went to about 12150 on SENSEX, reverted back to gain about a 1000 points and then lost more than 600 points to close near 12500. The US market closed weak on Friday despite the bail-out getting approval of the US senate. This is not a good sign and the market is most likely to open gap down on Monday. I have been repeatedly saying that this market has little chance of immediate reversal of trend and I stick to my view that in the days to come we shall witness further deterioration of the situation. Not only the SENSEX or NIFTY but all sectoral indices are in a bearish zone and it is difficult to say which sector is good for making purchases. I would like to summarise by saying a few points.

The market is still not out of bearish trend.
It appears that this trend will continue for long and there is no near-term possibility of trend reversal.
The market may see the level of 11800 in short time.
One can initiate buying in small lots once the market is near 12000 but if it closes below 11800 then we may observe FREE FALL.
The market is yet to find its bottom and the wisest approach will be to wait for it to settle. This may take a bit longer.
If market falls below 11800 then there are chances that it may test 10500 mark though any fall below 11000 appears to provide a good buying opportunity.
Any one who buys at lower levels should book profits when the market is in short term bullish zone because expecting the market to cross 14000 may prove to be a blunder.
Sit on your cash and wait. Opportunities are not lost forever in this market if you have cash.

INDIAN STOCK MARKET : SEPT 29 TO OCT 03, 2008

2008-09-26T23:32:00.000-07:00

In my previous post I had given indication that the market would not be able to sustain at higher levels and it stll has to find its bottom. During previous week SENSEX fell by more than 900 points to close slightly above 13100 mark. On Friday it fell by more than 400 points and later the US market closed with a gain of about 1% on DJ though NASDAQ remained almost flat. I still hold my view that the market will not be able to sustain above 14000 unless something drastic happens. On the other hand the probability of market falling further down to test a level below 12000 is high. All markets worldwide are in bearish phase and our market cannot be an exception in present scenario.

This week the market may open higher on the back of DJ but whether it sustains at levels higher than 14000 is a million dollar question. We should not expect market to take U turn unless it finds strong support at the bottom. Right from the beginning of 2008 the market has been making new low resistance levels during its upward movement and this trend has not ceased. This means that the market has limited upside.

The nearest strong resistance level is 13800 on SENSEX and then near 14300, where the market, if it could rise up to that level, will not be able to sustain. The next support is near 12800 and then near 12500. If 12500 breaks then the market may see sub-12000 levels in very short time.

One should remain patient and wait for market to stabilise at some level. If market falls below 12500 then one can initiate building long position slowly in select scrips with the risk that it might fall till 11800. A strict stoploss must be maintained and if market falls below 11800 then one should immediately exit because if this support level breaks then we cannot expect market to recover soon. THE BEST STRATEGY IS TO WAIT AND WATCH AND SIT ON YOUR CASH SO THAT DIWALI'S FESTIVE MOOD REMAINS INTACT.

INDIAN STOCK MARKET : SEPT 22 TO SEPT 26, 2008

2008-09-19T23:44:00.001-07:00

As mentioned in the previous post, the market went below 13000 to about 12500 and on the back of good news from global markets jumped back on last two days to close marginally above 14000. On weekly basis it remained almost unchanged as far as SENSEX is concerned. The US and other western markets were firm on Friday. The market is likely to open with gains on Monday but it would not be able to sustain at higher levels as ALL IS NOT WELL AS IT APPEARS TO BE and the crude has crossed 100 $ mark again to stay around 104 $. Any negative news from any corner of the globe along with rising crude prices can bring the market down sharply. I firmly believe that the MARKET IS STILL TRYING TO FIND ITS BOTTOM and any rise above 14000 should be utilised to EXIT and BOOK PROFITS. All that has happened after the disclosure of BIG FINANCIAL CRISIS in the US may have long term effects on entire world and short term measures like those taken by the US Government and other financial institutions would give temporary relief but it will take long to come out of such big crisis. We may have strong fundamental story but we cannot consider INDIA as completely insulated from the potential negative effects of this global crisis.

This is again the week of F & O settlement and this would make it highly volatile. I advise speculators to keep away from the market because any type of speculation can result in huge financial losses.

The strategy for the week is : SELL AS AND WHEN MARKET GOES UP AND KEEP YOUR MONEY SAFE FOR FUTURE OPPORTUNITY WHEN MARKET COOLS DOWN FURTHER. The present trend indicates that the market is all likely to see SENSEX around 11800 in near future. However, I advise those who have spare money to take risk of investing their money in good stocks as and when market falls below 12800.

INDIAN STOCK MARKET : SEPT 15 TO SEPT 19, 2008

2008-09-13T00:52:00.000-07:00

The market as mentioned in my previous post could not once again sustain above 15000 mark and closed at 14000 on the last day of previous week. This indicates that the market is yet to regain the confidence it has lost right from the beginning of 2008. Despite the fact that the crude prices kept on falling, the market continued to fall. This means that we will have to wait a long time before we see the market in bullish phase again. In my previous posts I have been advising to buy near 14000 mark and sell above 15000 but it now appears that the market may fall further in coming weeks due to one or the other factor. The first support for market lies near 13800 but if market breaks that level we might observe FREE FALL and market may test 12800 in near future. Crude prices tried to test 100 $ mark about three-four times but reverted from there and remained strong above 100 $ level. This may, for a short period, result in prices going up near 108 $. Globally, all markets appear to have some potential fears of falling further down and in that case our market too will remain weak. In present situation the market does not have much upside potential and if it rises it will face difficulties in crossing 15000 mark. On the other hand, there is a chance that it may test sub-13000 levels soon. If this happens then we will have a long period of PAIN(may be in terms of years) before we find it to stabilise and then rise again.

The strategy should be : WAIT AND WATCH...DO NOT MAKE HASTE IN GOING LONG...AND SELL IF IT RISES TO 15000 LEVEL. KEEP AWAY. BE A PATIENT SPECTATOR.

INDIAN STOCK MARKET : SEPT 8 TO SEPT 12, 2008

2008-09-05T10:49:00.000-07:00

The previous week ended without much gain or loss as its huge gains in the beginning were washed away on the last two days. As mentioned the market failed to sustain above 15000 despite crude falling well below 110 $ mark. The weak global markets and fears of long recession dragged market down though crude prices kept on falling.

The sentiment is still bearish and the gains by market on the back of positive happenings here and there cannot sustain long. I remember the times during 2007 when the market was bullish and extremely heated all negative factors including rising crude prices had little effect on the market and every time it fell by some points taking clue from some negative happenning it did not take much time to rebound. The same appears to be happenning now but in the opposite direction. Therefore the market may fall even if crude falls below 100 $ mark. I have been repeatedly mentioning that market lacks liquidity and unless sizeable liquidity returns to market it will not be able to sustain at levels higher than 15500.

The week may witness high volatility due to the tug of war between positives and negatives but the overall scenario still appears in the favour of BEARS. My strategy will be, I repeat, to buy below 14000 with the risk of market falling to 12500 and to sell above 15000 till market does not give clear signs of trend reversal. The day-traders or those in F & O should keep strict stoploss on either side otherwise they may incur huge losses.

I am bullish on IT and PHARMA. Keep a close watch on scrips from these sectors and accumulate slowly as and when market falls.

INDIAN STOCK MARKET : SEPTEMBER 1 TO SEPTEMBER 5, 2008

2008-08-30T00:43:00.000-07:00

The previous week started with negative bias but on the last day it gained by huge 516 points as inflation figures fell for the first time after a long period. Asian markets were positive in the morning and there were some positive statements by FM. However, the US market made a retreat from their previous gains and closed with a weak note. Crude appears to have strong support near 112 $ mark and equally strong resistance near 120 $ mark. Though it has fallen from its historic high around 145 $ but the current prices still are very high and can create much turbulence if they sustain at this level. It would be worse if the prices go up and cross 120 mark. The way the Western markets have closed on Friday may create negative sentiment and market may fall again. The fate of TATA's Singur plant is still in dark and its long term effects will hurt the market and economy in the end.

As mentioned previously, the strategy for near future should be : BUY near 14000 and SELL near 15000. Dollar is becoming strong slowly. This will definitely help TECH STOCKS to better their performance. I advise all to accumulate good TECH STOCKS for long term. You must have patience because the market still has not given any signs of trend reversal and one may have to wait a bit longer before the market zooms.

BUY RELIANCE POWER

Buy RPOWER near 155 with target of 180 and stoploss of 144.

INDIAN STOCK MARKET : AUGUST 25 TO AUGUST 29, 2008

2008-08-22T23:28:00.000-07:00

As mentioned in previous post the market lost some ground due to rising crude and disappointing inflation figures. On the last day it found support near 14200 and managed to close higher than the previous day. The Friday closing of US markets(DJ gained by nearly 200 points) and crude again falling near 115 $ after kissing 121 $ may help market open gap up on Monday but one should remain cautious following such gains and use such upward move to book profits. Market is likely to remain volatile because of settlement of August F & O on Thursday.

Market will find good support near 14200 and 13800. It will see resistance near 14700 and 15200 if it goes up. It appears that unless something drastic happens the market will try to remain range-bound between 13800 and 15500 for some time now. One should follow the startegy of buying near 14000 and selling above 15000. However, stock-specific strategy would be a more wise step.

TATA MOTORS appears to have been in trouble due to its SINGRUR plant. If they decide to cancel their project, it may result in huge losses and the production of NANO may get delayed. If this happens then the market may get a big jerk for time being.

BUY KALE CONSULTANT AND DCM SHRIRAM CONS FOR LONG TERM INVESTMENT

INDIAN STOCK MARKET : AUGUST 18 TO AUGUST 22, 2008

2008-08-15T00:48:00.000-07:00

The market went up on the first day of the previous week but failed to sustain above 15500 mark and fell by more than 400 points on weekly basis going below 14800 mark which is a support for the market. Since it has broken that support there are chances that the market will go down further and it may touch 13800 mark. The behaviour of the market is a clear indicator of its bearish tone and keeping this in mind every upward move should be treated as short-term relief rally and should be utilised to make safer EXIT from the market whenever and wherever possible.

To add to the worse scenario the inflation figures have disappointed the market by sharp rise to 12.44%. I had clearly mentioned in my previous post that rising market should be used to book profits because the declaration of inflation figures after the closing on Thursday may affect it in the next week. The market is likely to open gap down if other markets do not show any positive trend. The crude after touching 112 $ mark has jumped back. If it continues to rise then market will fall again to unexpected levels. I reiterate my stand that the trend is still bearish and we have yet to come out of it. One more reason why market fails to sustain at higher levels is that the flow of money has become limited and market is waiting for enough liquidity to return. Most of the upward moves of market have been utilised by the FIIs to make EXIT from certain sectors.

Market will find support near 14200 and then near 13800. The resistance level is 15500. Buy near 14000 and sell above 15000 will be a good strategy according to me.

BUY SONATA SOFTWARE and QUINTEGRA SOLUTIONS

Sonata software : Current Rs.29-30 Target Rs. 36 Stoploss Rs. 27.50

Quintegra Solutions : Current Rs.50-51 Target Rs. 69 Stoploss Rs. 45

INDIAN STOCKS : AUGUST 11 TO AUGUST 15, 2008

2008-08-08T23:33:00.000-07:00

The market managed to close above 15000 on the last day of the week indicating that it has some good support and for short term it may try to remain bullish. The crude has fallen well below 120 mark and is at present trading around 115 $. This is a good sign and next support for crude lies near 108 mark. It appears that the market may go up during this week and may cross 15500 mark. If it crosses that mark and remains above it for two days then there are chances that it will try to reach 16200 mark during this week. The market will operate for four days only as 15th happens to be holiday.

If market goes up during first two days on the back of positive triggers like falling crude and strong closing by US markets then take a chance to sell near 16000 because thursday will be the last day and inflation figures will be declared after the market has closed. The strategy should be to buy near 13800 and to sell near 16200.

DO NOT RUSH TO BUY HEAVILY THINKING THAT THE MARKET HAS TAKEN U TURN BECAUSE THIS UPWARD TREND MAY LAST FOR A VERY SHORT PERIOD AS THE MARKET HAS STILL TO GIVE CLEAR SIGNS OF TREND REVERSAL. ANY SHORT TERM UPTREND SHOULD BE UTILISED TO EXIT WHEREVER YOU ARE MAKING PROFITS.

BUY GEOMETRIC SOFT AND AFTEK INFOSYS

Short term target for Geometric is 66 and long term target is 75. Short term target for Aftek is 54 and long term target is 63.

SENSEX support at 14700 and 14200.

SENSEX resistance at 15500 and 16200.

INDIAN STOCK MARKET : AUGUST 4 TO AUGUST 8, 2008

2008-08-03T01:13:00.000-07:00

The market has become range bound and it appears that it is trying to stabilise between 12500 and 15500. It gets support near 13000 and resistance near 15000. It still has not given clear indication of having bottomed out. One positive trigger and it jumps and next day one negative trigger and it nosedives. It would be wise to buy near 13000 and sell near 15000.

The monsoon in the western states has of late given some signs of respite during previous week, though it has not rained sufficiently. Crude price is trying to break 120 $ level but jumps back from that level indicating that 120 is a strong support and if it jumps up from that level to cross 128 mark then crude may become a negative trigger for the stock markets. Inflation almost touched 12% mark last week and that too is a cause of concern. One more negative trigger is recent TERROR ATTACKS in some parts of Gujarat and continuing threats of blasts here and there by so called terror groups disrupting normal course of life which does affect the economy in the end. The only positive trigger is that most of the companies have declared good results and given hopeful guidance.

Buy good scrips like INFOSYS, WIPRO, RELIANCE, SESA GOA, BHEL, IGL, NTPC, ASHOK LEYLAND, ESCORTS, L & T, RPOWER, RCOM, BHARTI, TATATELE, ISPAT, TATA STEEL, SAIL, UTTAM STEEL, ACC, INDIA CEMENT, BOC, BONGAI REFINERY, ITC, REI AGRO, etc. as and when market falls.

SELL near 15000 level and above it because the upside is still limited and only some miracle will be able to drive the market beyond 15500.

Support : 14200, 13800

Resistance : 15500

BUY IGL NEAR 108 and HOLD. TARGET 135. STOPLOSS 96.

INDIAN STOCKS : JULY 28 TO AUGUST 1, 2008

2008-07-26T00:36:00.000-07:00

The government ultimately emerged a winner and as expected the market shoot up by more than 800 points on Wednesday. But the smiles on faces of the players and investors disappeared within 48 hours as the market witnessed a fall of more than 600 points during next two days indicating that the market is still weak from within. I had advised to sell if market shoot up on the back of government winning the trust vote. I still feel that all is not well and the effect of positives will be set off by one or more negatives surfacing from any corner of the globe.

The worries regarding the crude appear to have subsided for some time as well as those regarding the survival of the government but though inflation has stabilised a bit its level is still alarming. I had referred to the irregularity of monsoon in my previous posts as a potential dragger for the market and now we have realised that the monsoon till now is not satisfactory or it is even a major factor to worry about because barring a couple of states all the states are facing partial failure of monsoon. The situation may become grim if it does not rain substantially in near future. The market in that case will not be able to sustain any gains and may witness the levels below 12000.

As of now all sectors look weak and it would be wise to stay away from going long in any scrip for some time now. Keep watching the market carefully till it gets stabilised and finds its bottom. I admit that it is very difficult to judge when and where the market will find its true support but then that(uncertainty) is the charm of anything speculative in nature.

We will have settlement of F & O during this week. This will make market volatile and more uncertain. The market has support around 13800 and then near 12800 and it will face resistance around 14700 and 15300, in case it rises.

BETTER STAY AWAY FROM THE MARKET AND REMAIN SAFE

INDIAN STOCKS : JULY 21 TO JULY 25

2008-07-19T00:54:00.001-07:00

This is a very crucial week for the market as the fate of the Manmohansingh's government is going to be decided on Tuesday. If the government survives the market will for once shoot up and it may go up to 14700. If the government fails to collect sufficient support then the market may witness cascade selling and it may go to 12000 mark or even below that. One factor of respite is that the crude prices have fallen below 130 mark and if it continues to fall then the market may get support around 12000 in the event of the government falling short of majority.

What should then be the strategy ? I would not speculate on any side and remain calm for first two days. If market goes up then take a chance of selling and booking profits because we are still not out of a bear market and long term trend is still bearish as all is not well on all fronts. One positive factor may boost the market for some time but negatives still have upper hand and the upmove will be limited. If the market falls then one should wait for market to stabilise, particularly if the fall is due to fall of the government because it will create political instability for some time and market will face difficulty in finding proper direction. It will be driven only by rumours then till the new government takes the charge.

STAY AWAY FROM THE MARKET, PARTICULARLY IF YOU ARE A SMALL INVESTOR, AND DON'T RUSH ON ANY SIDE DURING THIS WEEK.

INDIAN STOCKS : JULY 07 TO JULY 11

2008-07-05T07:13:00.000-07:00

Rishtehirishte.com(CLICK TO SEE)

The market witnessed a better previous week compared to a couple of weeks before that as the fall was restricted to around 350 points only. It appears that the market is trying to find its bottom in the vicinity of 13000. Whether it will stabilize there is still a big question. Negative factors have still upper hand and one big positive factor to bring some respite to the investors is the SURVIVAL OF THE GOVERNMENT. At present the Government seems to have little danger of falling as the political developments have clearly indicated that the chances of it falling in near future are much less. If it survives then the market may enter a short term uptrend supported by better results. The market, however, will face resistance near 13800 and if it succeeds to cross it then at 14700. Much of the upward movement will be because of shortsellers buying aggressively. Unless INFLATION and CRUDE weaken, the market cannot go much higher and any level beyond 14500 should be seen as an opportunity to book profits if you have bought near 13000 level. There are ample chances that on the back of global recession, the market may drift down to 12000 level or even below that, particularly if crude trades beyond 150 $ mark. It had reached 146 $ mark and the factors governing crude prices appear to have little probability of prices falling below 132 $ mark in near future. Monsoon, as I had mentioned in my previous post, is not progressing satisfactorily but under the shadow of other factors its possible effects on the market have not surfaced yet. It may act as a big HIDDEN NEGATIVE TRIGGER if it gives slightest indication of failing to meet expectations of MET DEPT which had forecaste GOOD MONSOON for current year just a month ago.

My strategy would be to buy below sub-13000 level and sell near 14500+. Do not forget that my BUY advice is for long term because it is extremely difficult to predict market behaviour in present set of circumstances and when you buy you must be prepared to see sub-12000 levels before the market actually finds its bottom. BUT if you SHORTSELL in present market you are more likely to emerge a loser. DON'T BUY IF YOU DON'T WANT TO BUT DON'T SHORTSELL.

NOTE : I will not write my next post, i.e., for the week starting on JULY 14 as I will be out of station and will not be able to tract market besides my inability to access internet.

How we make Rs.25000/Month(CLICK TO FIND)

INDIAN STOCKS : JUNE 30 TO JULY 04

2008-06-27T10:42:00.000-07:00

The market fell sharply as expected and went below 13800 level as I had been repeatedly predicting for last four and half months. The market, however, did not close below that level. 13800 is a strong support and the market will show strong resilience around 13800 before going further down, if and when this happens. Though the market appears to have several negatives against it for both the short term as well as long term perspective, I believe that every fall in the market should be seen as an opportunity to buy fundamentally good stocks because there valuations have reached attractive low levels from where they have little downside left.

Crude has crossed 140 $ mark and is trading there strongly indicating that it has overpowered the resistance level of 139 $. It has some potential now to cross 148 $ mark during near future. Inflation is going to remain a factor of utmost concern and it is unlikely to go down below 10% in short time. One more factor of worry is that the monsoon is progressing haphazardly; pouring heavily in some states like WB and Orissa with huge destruction but not raining for more than 20 days in western states like Gujarat and Maharashtra. Any negative forecast by the MET department regarding the behaviuor of monsoon can add to the worries of the market.

For some time now the market will try to stabilise but it may take long in case negative factors dominate the scenario. If it breaks 13800 level significantly then the situation may worsen further and the SENSEX may see the level of 12000. In such uncertain time one should become stock-specific and irrespective of the movement of the SENSEX one should start buying attractive stocks only with long term view. One should avoid any aggressiveness in going long or short because such tendency may prove suicidal.

STOCKS TO WATCH : NTPC, NEYVELLI LIGNITE, CENTURY TEXTILE, AZTEKSOFT, GEOMETRIC, TATA STEEL, INFOSYS, WIPRO, SATYAM, TCS, ONGC, BOC, UTTAM STEEL, SAL STEEL, RANBAXY, CIPLA, DR REDDY'S LAB, DABUR, RPOWER, ISPAT, GNFC, GUJARAT ALKALI, GSFC, MEGASOFT, QUINTEGRA, ITC, TORRENT POWER...

INDIAN STOCKS : JUNE 23 TO JUNE 27

2008-06-21T00:28:00.000-07:00

As mentioned in previous post the market tried to cross its resistance level of 15600 during the first two days but failed to sustain and ultimately fell below its immediate support level of 14700 on Friday. I had mentioned that INFLATION would be the main culprit and on Friday the market fell sharply after the declaration of unexpected and very high 11+ % inflation. The US markets too fell sharply below 12000 mark for the first time after a long period.

I have been cautioning against the negatives for this market right from the fourth week of January and every time the market appeared to have recovered I have mentioned that those gains were mere corrections and each correction upward should be seen as an opportunity to exit. Now we have reached a level where it would be difficult to decide whether to sell or not. The market is likely to see sub-14000 level in this week as we have negative clues from global markets and there will be settlement of F & O on Thursday.

I believe that the time is not ripe for going long as the market may not get momentum for bullishness in near future BUT at the same time the levels to which the market has reached could be dangerous to go short. In fact, one should start buying good scrips slowly and at every level when market falls with one thing in mind that this market may go down to as low as 12000 if the inflation and crude contribute to worsening of the situation. Several good stocks are at attractive low levels and have limited downside left even if the market falls. You can refer to my previous posts where I have made some BUY RECOMMENDATIONS. Many of these stocks have reached the levels which are highly attractive.

INDIAN STOCKS : JUNE 16 TO JUNE 20

2008-06-14T07:57:00.000-07:00

The market went to as low as 14645 before recovering and closing above 15000. The weekly loss was about 380 points on SENSEX. Amidst the mixture of good and bad factors the market exhibited some resiliance at sub-15K level but still the draggers have upper hand and in the days to come it appears that the market will not be able to go much higher. Also, one must not forget that unless something extreme happens on global front or local political front the market has limited downside and 13800 is a strong support level.

Though I am of the opinion that every rise should be used to make safe exit from the market one should refrain from going short when market falls sharply. I would advise those with enough liquidity to initiate buying in good scrips from two sectors : IT and PHARMA. The immediate support level for the market is around 14700 and resistance level is around 15600.

Crude appears to be consolidating around 133 $ mark and unless it falls below 130 $ mark one should not expect much downside for crude in near future. INFLATION will remain the most dominating factor in not allowing the market to go up.

BUY RPOWER AROUND 180 WITH STOPLOSS OF 168 AND SHORT TERM TARGET OF 207.

BUY GNFC AROUND 140 WITH STOPLOSS OF 126 AND SHORT TERM TARGET OF 165.

INDIAN STOCKS : JUNE 09 TO JUNE 13

2008-06-08T01:14:00.000-07:00

The market lost about 5% both on SENSEX and NIFTY and closed with negative bias on the last day of the previous week. To worsen the situation the US markets lost heavily on that day indicating that our market will open surely gap down on Monday. The situation is clearly in favour of the BEARS and the market is all likely to go below 15000 during this week.

I had mentioned in my previous post that crude will go up after consolidating and it surprised everybody by an unexpected jump of about 10$ in one day reaching almost 140$ mark. It appears that majority of parameters will continue to favour BEARS during next 7-10 days and market may see sub-14000 level in near future. As per my reading this level will be attractive to go long in certain scrips, particularly, IT and PHARMA sectors. Even during falling market some frontline IT stocks have performed well and they will continue to strengthen in future.

I would like to take risk at sub-15000 levels and start buying with one thing in mind that the market has all probabilities of going down to 13800 level. After all one has to take risk at some level as there is no clear method of predicting the market behaviour.

AZTEK SOFT (current price : 70-71) appears to have good potential to cross 3-digit mark in 2008. Regarding other good scrips to be watched I request you to go through my previous posts in which I have recommended some better stocks to buy as and when the market falls.

INDIAN STOCKS : JUNE 02 TO JUNE 06

2008-05-31T08:00:00.000-07:00

The market closed on Friday with marginal loss in SENSEX on weekly basis. As mentioned earlier, it found support near 16200 level and did not go below that. Actually, the week observed a zigzag motion by SENSEX as it fell one day, regained groung on another day and fell the next day. The situation is not good for long term sustenance of market as the scenario on inflation front is getting worse and worse. The crude appears to consolidate around 126 $ and may rebound to cross 130 mark to reach 140 mark in near future.

I stick to my view that the present market is not conducive to much higher level and odds are in favour of BEARS. Political turbulence is getting momentum day after day and both the opposition and the LEFT are becoming more and more offensive on several issues.

The best approach is to keep away from the market till some concrete developments emerge with clear indication of the trend. MY VIEW IS THAT WE ARE STILL IN A BEAR MARKET.

16600 / 17200 are resistance levels and 16200 / 15700 are support levels for near future.

GUJARAT ALKALI is a long term buy with a target of 270. Accumulate slowly.

INDIAN STOCKS : MAY 26 TO MAY 30

2008-05-23T20:20:00.000-07:00

Once again the market observed a week of bearishness after strong previous week. The sensex has fallen below 17000 and has closed with heavy losses on last two days of the previous week. I had clearly mentioned here that INFLATION and CRUDE will be two major factors playing against the bulls and would bring the market down. The worries about these factors are becoming monstrous and the market is all likely to lose further ground in this week. The support for market lies around 16200, 15600 and 15200. The resistance levels are 17200 1nd 17600. In fact, the way the market has failed twice to cross 17600 mark in recent past is an indicator that the market has strong resistance near this level and it will be difficult for the market to cross this mark in near future. I still believe that the market would slowly drift towards 13800 mark to find its bottom there. Going long at present is not a wise theory and the best approach is to wait for the market to stabilise at some lower level and once it finds the bottom one can go long with long term view.

DISH TV appears to have good potential for upside. Buy this stock near 51/52 and hold for long time for good returns. Similarly MASCON GLOBAL (current price 22/22.50) looks good as long term investment. I am still very bullish on two sectors : IT and PHARMA. Every fall in this market should be utilised to buy good stocks from these sectors.

There will be settlement of F & O during this week. This may keep market highly volatile. Avoid aggressive buying or selling.

INDIAN STOCKS : MAY 19 TO MAY 23

2008-05-16T09:57:00.000-07:00

The previous week was better for BULLS and the market regained almost what it had lost in the week ahead of that as far as SENSEX is concerned. Much of the recovery was due to depriciating rupee against dollar and most of the gainers were from IT sector because it is the only sector to get most benefited due to strong dollar. The SENSEX has again come nearer to 17600 level where it would face resistance before it could go further up. The upside however is LIMITED and I reiterate my stand that each and every move northward should be used to make safe EXIT from this market so that you can have strong platform to re-enter it as and when it falls.

18500, as mentioned earlier here, is the level too difficult for market to cross because there are several potential draggers, factors like INFLATION and CRUDE PRICES along with the POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY that may emerge after the next general elections, and their negative effect should not be underestimated. Though elections are not supposed to be held in 2-3 months, market cannot ignore the strong potential of this factor to bring it sharply down.

I had mentioned some good scrips in my previous post and I adhere to it. I am highly bullish on AIR DECCAN and recommend it as BUY at every level as long term investment.

INDIAN STOCKS : MAY 12 TO MAY 16

2008-05-09T23:47:00.000-07:00

The market lost about 900 points during last week and closed with loss in SENSEX on all five trading days. It appears that the short-term pull back is over and it is all likely to go down further in the days to come. The important support levels are 16200, 15800 and 15300. The market is expected to close below or around 16200 during this week.

As explained in previous post, both the INFLATION and CRUDE PRICES had their contribution in bringing the market down. These two factors, coupled with local political issues, may continue to affect the market negatively.

My strategy, as mentioned earlier, is still to SELL on every rise and not to make any undue haste in going long till the market bottoms out. It is difficult, however, to judge exactly the level where it would bottom out but I believe that the bottom lies around 13800 and we will see this level in future before the market stabilises at lower levels.

Following are my TOP PICKS and I advise you to keep an eye on these stocks as and when market falls and to add them slowly to your portfolio as long-term investment.

HCLTECH

GEOMETRICSOFT

INFOSYS

TCS

DCM SHRIRAM CONS

IGL

Ashok Leyland

RPOWER

AIR DECCAN

HFCL

DABUR

DR REDDY'S LAB

EXIT from sectors like STEEL and CEMENT

INDIAN STOCKS : MAY 5 TO MAY 9

2008-05-04T11:32:00.000-07:00

The market,as expected in previous post, reached 17600 level and closed firm on Friday. It may try to cross 18000 during this week because of global markets showing some strength. I firmly believe that this market will get tired around 18500 level. I see limited upside from here and one should be cautious about going long at this level. INFLATION is becoming a big factor and it, coupled with some other negative parameter, may suddenly drive the market downwards. Crude has consolidated near 110 $ mark and may now cross 120 $ mark. The Govt of India may have to take some stringent steps to control inflation and these steps may not be in favour of the market.

SELL IS THE BEST STRATEGY

INDIAN STOCKS : APRIL 28 TO MAY 02

2008-04-26T04:36:00.000-07:00

The market closed above 17000 on the last day of the previous week. The trend is bullish for short term backed by some good results. The market may reach the level near 17600 during this week. However, I still stick to my stand that one should use this short-term rally to EXIT and book profit as and when one gets a chance. The FII participation is not encouraging and it appears they are using each higher level to make safe exit from certain scrips.

The inflation worries are still hovering over the market and crude prices near 120 $ are adding fuel to the possible southward movement of the market once the potential positive triggers like good results start losing their shine.

One should not take much risk of entering/holding cement and steel scrips as the government may have to induce much stricter steps to save its face from rising inflation. To control commodity prices the government may even be forced to introduce some controls which in turn might affect FMCG companies like Hindustan Lever and ITC. Do not be overaggressive in going long in HL and ITC.

For short term trading ISPAT around 34.50, Bongaigaon refinery around 61 and Gujarat Alkali around 185 look attractive.

INDIAN STOCKS : APRIL 21 TO APRIL 25

2008-04-17T10:03:00.000-07:00

The market operated for only three days during the week and gained about 650 points, much due to the INFOSYS result/guidance, better monsoon prediction by MET Dept, and to some extent the Wednesday gains of US markets. Now it has reached, once again, the resistance level of 16500 from where it had reverted twice before. This level is very crucial for the market and if it successfully crosses 16500, then its next resistance levels will be near 16900, 17200 1nd 17600. If at all it reaches 17600 or somewhere near it it would face stiff resistance.

April, as mentioned earlier, is the month of results (results of most of the drivers of market are declared during this month) and the market may get short term boost backed by the results of companies like RIL, WIPRO, TCS, L & T, BHEL, REL, TATA POWER, etc. I firmly believe that all these gains of the market should be used to EXIT as the bear market is not over. The upside will remain limited as we are going closer to parliamentory elections and nobody is sure as to what the shape of the next government would be and if the present government would be able to retain its power for next term. I am not a political pundit but I feel that as we are approaching elections the things are going more against Mr Manmohansingh and his govt. All that glittered during last four years suddenly appears to have developed subcutanous black spots which the PM and the FM might not have foreseen.

I reiterate my stand that this market will not be able to cross 18500 in any case and the bearish trend will not end before the market sees sub-14000 level.

INDIAN STOCKS : APRIL 14 TO APRIL 18

2008-04-14T10:26:00.000-07:00

Before I continue, I would like to correct my error in previous post. Regarding ORCHID CHEMICALS I had mentioned the price of Rs. 180 as target by error. My target was 222 but I had typed the then current price of the stock by mistake. The stock went in fact well above 222 which I did not expect to happen in short term.

I am late in writing this post as it is Monday today but I was helpless as the BSNL server providing internet service was 'down' from Friday evening till Monday morning and I had, in fact, little hope that I would be able to write my post. Only because the market remained closed today I feel it is still not late.

Returning to the market, judging from global scenario anybody would predict that the market would open GAP DOWN and may reach sub-15000 level in this week. All indicators are pointing towards more hopeless situation for bulls and of course those investors who were overenthusiastic when the market was at 20000+ and they bought in stead of selling what they had. I have been constantly stressing (from the day when market reverted from its all-time highs-you can visit my blog manojsir) that the market is all likely to see the level of 13800. This is a level where it is advisible to go long to some extent but one should practise wisdom in doing anything aggressively as and when the market witnesses sub-14000 level.

Some of my picks and their attractive level at which one can take risk to buy them in falling market are :

RANBAXY - 405

RCOM - 440

SATYAM - 375

TATA STEEL - 603

ASHOK LEYLAND - 31.50

BONGAIGAON REFINARY - 44

DR REDDY'S LAB - 540

GEOMETRIC - 54

GSPL - 52

IGL - 108

ISPAT - 25

NTPC - 165

NEYVELLI - 108

ONGC - 850

TCS - 777

RIL - 2100

INDIAN STOCKS : APRIL 07 - APRIL 11

2008-04-04T06:48:00.000-07:00

The previous week ended with a very weak note and the market returned to almost the level from where it had gained during the week before that. I had mention in my previous post (on my blog : manojsir, where I used to write about stocks) that 16500 was a resistance level and the market failed to cross it. Our market performed the worst in comparison to other global markets. The main culprit to drag market down was INFLATION which touched 7% mark with alarming indications for future trends. Actually, on last friday when inflation figures were declared to be 6.68%, the market ignored the fact and closed with handsome gains. Nobody was much concerned at that time but Come Monday and suddenly we all realised that inflation was the real monster threatening our economy.

Whatever the trend in global market be, I am sure THE WORST IS STILL TO FOLLOW and it would be wiser to stay away from going long in recent future. As I had mentioned earlier the best level in present scenario to go long is near 14000 which now appears a clear possibility unless too much liquidity returns to the market. The level near 13800, I reiterate, is a strong support level and one can take risk when market falls to invest in good scrips with the condition that you might have to wait long before you reap profits.

Can market go below 13800 ? Though it appears a too remote possibility, one cannot firmly say that the market will not go below 13800. On the contrary, if the market does fall below 13800 for consecutive days I think we will have very little left in the market and we will observe FREE FALL in the market once again. Once market breaks the support of 13800 we will see the worst situation in the market and it will be difficult for the market to stabilise in near future.

There are several equities showing attractive levels and I would like to take some risk to buy them in falling market. A few of them are :

ORCHID CHEMICALS...TARGET-180 STOPLOSS-144
NEYVELLI LIGNITE...TARGET-144 STOPLOSS-108
RPOWER.............TARGET-350 STOPLOSS-305
NTPC...............TARGET-225 STOPLOSS-162
INFOSYS............TARGET-1650 STOPLOSS-1350
DABUR..............TARGET-135 STOPLOSS-96
AFTEK INFO.........TARGET-54 STOPLOSS-36

If the market shows some correction on the back of results, I would advise to treat it as an opportunity to EXIT near 16500 and above(if market succeeds to reach there).

Want to see my previous posts on stock market ? CLICK HERE

INTRODUCTION

2008-04-01T02:01:00.000-07:00

I have been writing weekly tips for the market on my blog manojsir but I felt that I should have an exclusively market oriented blog. So, I created this new blog and now onwards I shall be writing tips on this blog. However, I will keep my old blog operational for other items not related to market.